Did the signals hold up?
Daily Results
Record
17–13
Hit rate
56.7%
Avg scorei
78
Graded30Void0Pending0Predictions30
56.7% today·-5.0 pts vs the 30-day average (61.7%)·+0.7 pts over base, where 30 days runs +9.9 pts
Daily read
- No edge today. Against what this exact mix of props lands on its own, the slate ran +0.7 pts — behind the +9.9 pts the 30 days before it run.
- The top of the scale earned it. The 10 highest-scored predictions went 8–2, well clear of the 57% the slate hit overall.
By market
MarketRecordHit ratevs baseAvg scorei
Batter Hits7–12 n=1936.8%-23.7 pts73
SP Strikeouts6–0 n=6100.0%+50.4 pts85
SP Hits Allowed4–1 n=580.0%+28.2 pts88
Props
30 predictionsHighest-scored misses2 misses among the day's 10 strongest predictions
- 90Gerrit ColeSP Hits Allowed Over 5.5actual 5 hits allowed
- 77Michael Harris IIBatter Hits Over 0.5actual 0 hits
Show
HITDrew RasmussenTampa Bay Rays vs Yankees · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 4.5991 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 3.8 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 4 or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
HITJacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 5.5994 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 3.2 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 5 or fewer in 6 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
HITJacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 4.5936 K
Why this score?
- 6.0 K per start over last 6
- Reached 5+ in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
HITParker MessickCleveland Guardians vs White Sox · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 4.5936 K
Why this score?
- 6.2 K per start over last 6
- Reached 5+ in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
MISSGerrit ColeNew York Yankees vs Rays · MLBSP Hits AllowedOver 5.5905 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 6.0 hits per start over last 6
- Reached 6+ in 4 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
HITTarik SkubalLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 5.5907 K
Why this score?
- 6.7 K per start over last 6
- Reached 6+ in 4 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
HITDrake BaldwinAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5781 hit
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
HITRobbie RaySan Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 5.5774 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 4.5 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 5 or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
HITTarik SkubalLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 4.5772 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 5.3 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 4 or fewer in 4 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
MISSMichael Harris IIAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5770 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
MISSBen RiceNew York Yankees vs Rays · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5770 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Faces Drew Rasmussen, who allows hits 12% below league average
HITRobbie RaySan Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBSP StrikeoutsUnder 5.5761 K
Why this score?
- 3.7 K per start over last 6
- Held to 5 or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
MISSJose RamirezCleveland Guardians vs White Sox · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5750 hits
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Faces Hagen Smith, who allows hits 20% below league average
HITTy FranceSan Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5751 hit
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk: Faces Jacob Misiorowski, who allows hits 25% below league average
MISSSteven KwanCleveland Guardians vs White Sox · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5750 hits
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Faces Hagen Smith, who allows hits 20% below league average
MISSJoey OrtizMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5750 hits
Why this score?
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
MISSChase DeLauterCleveland Guardians vs White Sox · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5750 hits
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Faces Hagen Smith, who allows hits 20% below league average
MISSBrice TurangMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5740 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Elevated recent strikeout rate
HITMiguel VargasChicago White Sox vs Guardians · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5741 hit
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Ice cold — 1 hit in the last 25 plate appearances
MISSChase MeidrothChicago White Sox vs Guardians · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5730 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
HITMunetaka MurakamiChicago White Sox vs Guardians · MLBBatter KsOver 1.5732 K
Why this score?
- 1.7 strikeouts per game over last 20
- 2+ K in 12 of 20 games
- Opposing starter strikes out 25% of batters faced
Main risk: Strikeouts swing with the opposing starter and two-strike counts
HITFreddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5721 hit
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
HITMookie BettsLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5721 hit
Why this score?
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
MISSMauricio DubonAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5720 hits
Why this score?
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
HITDrew RasmussenTampa Bay Rays vs Yankees · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 4.57110 K
Why this score?
- 6.0 K per start over last 6
- Reached 5+ in 4 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
HITFernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5711 hit
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Faces Jacob Misiorowski, who allows hits 25% below league average
MISSGeorge Lombard Jr.New York Yankees vs Rays · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5710 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
Main risk: Faces Drew Rasmussen, who allows hits 12% below league average
HITWilliam ContrerasMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5701 hit
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
MISSJo AdellCleveland Guardians vs White Sox · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5700 hits
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Faces Hagen Smith, who allows hits 20% below league average
MISSKyle TeelChicago White Sox vs Guardians · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5700 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
No predictions match these filters.
Results are graded from stored plate appearances and box scores. Voids and pending results are excluded from hit rate. Opportunity Score is a ranking signal, not a probability — 70 is the publication floor, and a higher score means more estimated edge over the market's own base rate.