Did the signals hold up?
Daily Results
Record
15–9
Hit rate
62.5%
Avg scorei
95
Graded24Void0Pending0Predictions24
62.5% today·roughly in line with the 30-day average (61.3%)·+28.3 pts over base, where 30 days runs +10.7 pts
Daily read
- A strong day. Against what this exact mix of props lands on its own, the slate ran +28.3 pts — ahead of the +10.7 pts the 30 days before it run. The bars were higher than usual (34% of these props land unprompted against 51% across that window), so the raw hit rate understates the day.
By market
MarketRecordHit ratevs baseAvg scorei
Points7–2 n=977.8%+39.2 pts99
Rebounds5–3 n=862.5%+32.1 pts94
Assists3–4 n=742.9%+9.9 pts91
Props
24 predictionsHighest-scored misses3 misses among the day's 10 strongest predictions
- 100Breanna StewartRebounds Over 7.5actual 4 reb
- 100A'ja WilsonPoints Over 24.5actual 21 pts
- 100Jackie YoungPoints Over 19.5actual 18 pts
Show
HITChelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAAssistsOver 4.51005 ast
Why this score?
- 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 5+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITKiah StokesGolden State Valkyries vs Aces · WNBAReboundsOver 7.510010 reb
Why this score?
- Usable recent role at 27.8 minutes
- Cleared 8+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITBreanna StewartNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAPointsOver 19.510026 pts
Why this score?
- 35.4 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 20+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
MISSBreanna StewartNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAReboundsOver 7.51004 reb
Why this score?
- 35.4 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 8+ in 6/10
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITJonquel JonesNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAReboundsOver 9.510014 reb
Why this score?
- 29.0 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 10+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITJordin CanadaAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAAssistsOver 4.510011 ast
Why this score?
- 32.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 5+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITGabby WilliamsGolden State Valkyries vs Aces · WNBAPointsOver 14.510016 pts
Why this score?
- 29.8 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 15+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: Minutes have been volatile
MISSA'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAPointsOver 24.510021 pts
Why this score?
- 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 25+ in 7/10
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITA'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAReboundsOver 7.510010 reb
Why this score?
- 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 8+ in 4/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
MISSJackie YoungLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAPointsOver 19.510018 pts
Why this score?
- 36.4 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 20+ in 6/10
Main risk: Cleared 20+ in only 2 of the last 5
MISSJackie YoungLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAAssistsOver 6.51002 ast
Why this score?
- 36.4 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 7+ in 6/10
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITRhyne HowardAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAPointsOver 14.510021 pts
Why this score?
- 36.2 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 15+ in 4/5
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
MISSVeronica BurtonGolden State Valkyries vs Aces · WNBAAssistsOver 4.51004 ast
Why this score?
- 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 5+ in 4/5
Main risk: Recent production is below the 10-game baseline
MISSAngel ReeseAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAReboundsOver 9.51009 reb
Why this score?
- 28.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 10+ in 7/10
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: Cleared 10+ in only 2 of the last 5
HITAngel ReeseAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAPointsOver 14.510022 pts
Why this score?
- 28.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 15+ in 7/10
Main risk: Recent production is below the 10-game baseline
HITDeWanna BonnerAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAReboundsOver 3.510013 reb
Why this score?
- Usable recent role at 24.2 minutes
- Cleared 4+ in 4/5
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: Minutes have been volatile
HITChelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces vs Valkyries · WNBAPointsOver 9.59917 pts
Why this score?
- 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 10+ in 5/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITJordin CanadaAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAPointsOver 9.59919 pts
Why this score?
- 32.6 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 10+ in 5/5
- Recent production is above the 10-game baseline
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
HITJonquel JonesNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAPointsOver 9.59326 pts
Why this score?
- 29.0 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 10+ in 4/5
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: Recent production is below the 10-game baseline
HITKaila CharlesGolden State Valkyries vs Aces · WNBAReboundsOver 3.5804 reb
Why this score?
- Usable recent role at 22.0 minutes
- Cleared 4+ in 8/10
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: Recent playing time is below 24 minutes
HITGabby WilliamsGolden State Valkyries vs Aces · WNBAAssistsOver 2.5793 ast
Why this score?
- 29.8 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 3+ in 7/10
Main risk: Minutes have been volatile
MISSRhyne HowardAtlanta Dream vs Liberty · WNBAAssistsOver 2.5790 ast
Why this score?
- 36.2 minutes per game over the last 5
- Cleared 3+ in 7/10
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
MISSPauline AstierNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAAssistsOver 2.5790 ast
Why this score?
- Usable recent role at 25.6 minutes
- Cleared 3+ in 7/10
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
MISSPauline AstierNew York Liberty vs Dream · WNBAReboundsOver 3.5760 reb
Why this score?
- Usable recent role at 25.6 minutes
- Cleared 4+ in 4/5
- 10-game average provides threshold cushion
Main risk: No standout red flags in recent form
No predictions match these filters.
Results are graded from stored plate appearances and box scores. Voids and pending results are excluded from hit rate. Opportunity Score is a ranking signal, not a probability — 70 is the publication floor, and a higher score means more estimated edge over the market's own base rate.