Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Assists carries the strongest edge (+23.1 pts over base). Batter Hits is the volume leader (5,634 graded, -3.7 pts). Over is currently the stronger side (+10.5 pts vs +2.8 pts for Under). Down 2.9 points vs previous 30 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Assists+23.1 pp n=268+32.9 pp n=15859%

Rebounds+18.7 pp n=320+32.9 pp n=17454%

Batter Ks+16.6 pp n=138+28.2 pp n=1410%

Points+8.3 pp n=444+21.9 pp n=24555%

SP Strikeouts+7.9 pp n=530+11.0 pp n=40476%

SP Hits Allowed-3.1 pp n=530-0.6 pp n=32161%

Batter Hits-3.7 pp n=5,634+2.6 pp n=1,30023%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 30 days · All qualifying1606–101061.4%n=2616196 void · 0 pending · avg score 82 · 23 slates

All qualifying1606–101061.4%n=2616

Featured110–6164.3%n=171

Other qualifying1496–94961.2%n=2445

61.4% hit rate, down 2.9 percentage points vs previous 30 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22Aug21

Batter Hits63%n=1300↓ -3 pp68%n=6663%n=1954%n=5051%n=5975%n=3676%n=4663%n=5263%n=52

SP Strikeouts58%n=418↑ +5 pp70%n=2054%n=1352%n=2554%n=2440%n=1561%n=2347%n=1565%n=23

SP Hits Allowed50%n=321↑ +18 pp65%n=2067%n=942%n=1250%n=1443%n=733%n=1867%n=1542%n=19

Points64%n=245→ +0 pp74%n=1950%n=1060%n=1064%n=1155%n=1171%n=1462%n=1340%n=15

Rebounds68%n=174→ -2 pp75%n=1675%n=850%n=862%n=1375%n=875%n=1667%n=1264%n=11

Assists66%n=158↑ +4 pp73%n=1150%n=6100%n=378%n=929%n=777%n=1356%n=970%n=10

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 85–89 band remains small.

Current scoring engine only — 1,846 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74180–9465.7%n=27422+7.7 pp base 58%

75–79103–8156.0%n=18412-1.3 pp base 57%

80–8437–2361.7%n=606+7.7 pp base 54%

85–89Small sample13–1056.5%n=231+9.1 pp base 47%

90–9424–2648.0%n=501+6.8 pp base 41%

95–9829–2256.9%n=511+7.7 pp base 49%

99–100173–10063.4%n=2738+29.3 pp base 34%

Over vs Under

Over1314–80062.2%n=2114

Under292–21058.2%n=502

Difference: +4.0 pp · Over stronger

MarketOverUnder

Batter Hits63.2% n=1300Not graded n=0

Batter Ks50.0% n=14Not graded n=0

SP Strikeouts48.0% n=15063.8% n=254

SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=7352.4% n=248

Points64.5% n=245Not graded n=0

Rebounds68.4% n=174Not graded n=0

Assists66.5% n=158Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Rebounds68.4% n=174+32.8 pp base 36%119–5568% 30d

Assists66.5% n=158+32.6 pp base 34%105–5366% 30d

Points64.5% n=245+21.5 pp base 43%158–8764% 30d

SP Strikeouts57.9% n=404+11.1 pp base 47%234–17058% 30d

Batter Hits63.2% n=1300+2.6 pp base 61%822–47863% 30d

SP Hits Allowed50.2% n=321-0.5 pp base 51%161–16050% 30d

Below minimum sample

Batter KsSmall50.0% n=14+28.2 pp base 22%7–750% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

61.5%

483–302 n=785

Last 30

61.4%

1606–1010 n=2616

Prev 30

64.2%

124–69 n=193

Season

61.6%

1730–1079 n=2809

All time

61.6%

1730–1079 n=2809

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-07124–6964.2% n=193+4.5 pp base 60%

2026-081606–101061.4% n=2616+9.0 pp base 52%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB Batter Hits

batter-hit-v62026-08-21→2026-08-28242–13863.7% n=380+3.0 pp base 61%

4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-20698–40763.2% n=1105+2.5 pp base 61%

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2884–6556.4% n=149+11.6 pp base 45%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20150–10558.8% n=255+10.7 pp base 48%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2858–5650.9% n=114+4.3 pp base 47%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20103–10449.8% n=207-3.3 pp base 53%

WNBA Points

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2862–4160.2% n=103+18.6 pp base 42%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-21101–4668.7% n=147+24.7 pp base 44%

WNBA Rebounds

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2863–2968.5% n=92+32.7 pp base 36%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2056–2866.7% n=84+31.5 pp base 35%

WNBA Assists

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2845–2366.2% n=68+34.9 pp base 31%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2061–3067.0% n=91+31.1 pp base 36%

MLB Batter Ks

batter-k-v22026-08-21→2026-08-285–455.6% n=9+33.8 pp base 22%

1 earlier version2026-08-15→2026-08-192–340.0% n=5+18.2 pp base 22%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.