Did the signals hold up?
Daily Results
Record
8–4
Hit rate
66.7%
Avg scorei
82
Graded12Void0Pending0Predictions12
66.7% today·+5.0 pts vs the 30-day average (61.6%)·+18.3 pts over base, where 30 days runs +10.4 pts
Daily read
- A short slate. 12 graded predictions is too few to read as a day — the rows below are a record, not a verdict.
By market
MarketRecordHit ratevs baseAvg scorei
Batter Hits3–2 n=560.0%-0.6 pts73
SP Strikeouts4–1 n=580.0%+59.1 pts92
SP Hits Allowed1–1 n=250.0%—99
Props
12 predictionsHighest-scored misses3 misses among the day's 10 strongest predictions
- 99Nick PivettaSP Hits Allowed Under 4.5actual 5 hits allowed
- 78Shohei OhtaniBatter Ks Over 1.5actual 1 K
- 72Ty FranceBatter Hits Over 0.5actual 0 hits
Show
HITChris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 5.51007 K
Why this score?
- 8.2 K per start over last 6
- Reached 6+ in 6 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
HITYoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBSP StrikeoutsOver 6.510010 K
Why this score?
- 7.7 K per start over last 6
- Reached 7+ in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
MISSNick PivettaSan Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 4.5995 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 3.7 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 4 or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: These 6 starts span 176 days — not a continuous recent run, so this is not current form
HITYoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBSP Hits AllowedUnder 5.5994 hits allowed
Why this score?
- 3.8 hits per start over last 6
- Held to 5 or fewer in 6 of 6 starts
Main risk: Hits allowed depends heavily on opponent and batted-ball luck
MISSShohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBBatter KsOver 1.5781 K
Why this score?
- 1.6 strikeouts per game over last 20
- 2+ K in 11 of 20 games
- Opposing starter strikes out 31% of batters faced
Main risk: Strikeouts swing with the opposing starter and two-strike counts
HITDustin MayMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBSP StrikeoutsUnder 5.5763 K
Why this score?
- 4.3 K per start over last 6
- Held to 5 or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
Main risk: Strikeout totals swing with the opposing lineup and pitch count
HITJake BauersMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBBatter KsOver 1.5754 K
Why this score?
- 1.4 strikeouts per game over last 20
- 2+ K in 10 of 20 games
- Opposing starter strikes out 29% of batters faced
Main risk: Strikeouts swing with the opposing starter and two-strike counts
HITMichael Harris IIAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5751 hit
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who allows hits 17% below league average
HITJoey OrtizMilwaukee Brewers vs Padres · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5731 hit
Why this score?
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
MISSTy FranceSan Diego Padres vs Brewers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5720 hits
Why this score?
- Recent contact results are improving
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk: Lineup not yet posted
MISSDrake BaldwinAtlanta Braves vs Dodgers · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5720 hits
Why this score?
- Strong recent plate-appearance volume
- Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk: Faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who allows hits 17% below league average
HITMookie BettsLos Angeles Dodgers vs Braves · MLBBatter HitsOver 0.5712 hits
Why this score?
- Low recent strikeout rate
- Consistently reaching base
Main risk: Recent hit rate has cooled
No predictions match these filters.
Results are graded from stored plate appearances and box scores. Voids and pending results are excluded from hit rate. Opportunity Score is a ranking signal, not a probability — 70 is the publication floor, and a higher score means more estimated edge over the market's own base rate.