NFL · hand-written calls, graded

Prop leans ledger

Every over or under a person wrote on a matchup page, recorded when the page was published and graded from the box score once the game was final. Hit rates here are descriptive: a dozen leans is a diary, not a sample, and nothing on this page is an Opportunity Score.

Engine performance →

Record

0–0

Hit rate

—n=0

Graded

Voids

Pending

Volume plays

0–016 pending

By section

Prop leans0–0 · 9 pending

Looking for overs0–0 · 7 pending

Volume board0–0 · 6 pending

By confidence

High0–0 · 4 pending

Moderate0–0 · 8 pending

Low0–0 · 10 pending

By side

Under0–0 · 15 pending

Over0–0 · 7 pending

By stat

Receptions0–0 · 12 pending

Pass attempts0–0 · 2 pending

Completions0–0 · 2 pending

Rushing yards0–0 · 3 pending

Passing yards0–0 · 2 pending

Passing touchdowns0–0 · 1 pending

By game

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks 2026-09-10 · 0–0 · 22 pending

#1 Rashid ShaheedSeattle Seahawks · high Under 2.5 receptions pending pending 3+ catches in 2 of his 9 games as a Seahawk; 1.7 a game. Horton being out adds snaps, not a 3-catch role.

#2 Rhamondre StevensonNew England Patriots · high Under 3.5 receptions pending pending 4+ catches in 2 of 15 games in 2025, and 0 to 3 in the four games he carried 12+ times. Henderson out raises his carries; the number is above anything his usage supports.

#3 Sam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks · high Under 30.5 pass attempts pending pending 31+ attempts in 6 of 17 in 2025; median 27. Seattle ran 32 times and threw 38 in February only because the game asked for it late.

#4 Sam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks · high Under 20.5 completions pending pending 21+ completions in 6 of 17; 19.0 a game. Same call as the attempts.

#5 Drake MayeNew England Patriots · moderate Under 32.5 pass attempts pending pending 33+ in 5 of 18 in 2025. The 43 in February came from trailing all night, and Henderson's absence pushes work to Stevenson on the ground.

#6 Sam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks · moderate Under 5.5 rushing yards pending pending 6+ rushing yards in 6 of 17; median 2. He ran for 5 in February.

#7 Sam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks · moderate Under 228.5 passing yards pending pending 238 a game in 2025, but the measured effect of a tough pass defence is about −21 yards and New England's is the 8th toughest of 32; his last four starts went 147, 198, 202, 202. The market has already moved to 228.5, so the edge is partly priced.

#8 Cooper KuppSeattle Seahawks · moderate Under 2.5 receptions pending pending 3+ catches in 7 of 16 in 2025. The risk is Horton's absence and February, when Kupp caught 6 on 12 targets with Smith-Njigba taken away.

#9 Rhamondre StevensonNew England Patriots · low Under 58.5 rushing yards pending pending 59+ in 2 of 15 in 2025 and in 1 of his 4 lead-back games. Seattle is the 4th toughest run defence by own-baseline rating (−7 to −11 yards against form). The lead role is new, which is why this is low.

#1 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeattle Seahawks · moderate · looking for overs Over 6.5 receptions pending pending 7+ catches in 12 of 17 in 2025, median 8, on 9.6 targets a game. Christian Gonzalez held him to 4 on 10 targets in February, which is the whole risk.

#2 Drake MayeNew England Patriots · moderate · looking for overs Over 1.5 passing touchdowns pending pending 2+ touchdown passes in 11 of 18 in 2025 and 2 in February, against a price that implies well under half.

#3 Drake MayeNew England Patriots · low · looking for overs Over 251.5 passing yards pending pending 252+ in 13 of 18 in 2025 and 295 in February. Seattle allowed 5.9 yards an attempt, and this pulls against the Maye attempts under in the leans, so it is low: one of the two is wrong.

#4 AJ BarnerSeattle Seahawks · low · looking for overs Over 2.5 receptions pending pending 3+ catches in 10 of 17 in 2025 and 4 in February, against a −165 price that implies about the same. Fair, not cheap.

#5 A.J. BrownNew England Patriots · low · looking for overs Over 5.5 receptions pending pending 6+ catches in 7 of 16 in Philadelphia's run-first offence on 8 targets a game. The over rests on the bigger role in New England, which is an argument, not a record.

#6 Romeo DoubsNew England Patriots · low · looking for overs Over 3.5 receptions pending pending 4+ catches in 8 of 17 in Green Bay. The +110 price implies about that. Only here because the second receiver in a Diggs-less room should see more than a Packers fourth option did.

#7 George HolaniSeattle Seahawks · low · looking for overs Over 18.5 rushing yards pending pending 18.2 a game on 5.5 carries in a spot role last season; Charbonnet's 11.5 carries a game are now split between him and a rookie. Four games of history, so low.

#1 DeMario DouglasNew England Patriots · moderate · volume board Under 2.5 receptions pending pending 3+ catches in 5 of 17 in 2025; 1.9 a game and 1.3 over the last six. February's 5 on 7 targets is the exception, and Brown and Doubs now sit above him.

#2 Elijah ArroyoSeattle Seahawks · moderate · volume board Under 1.5 receptions pending pending 2+ catches in 4 of 13 as a rookie; 1.2 a game on 2 targets. The −230 price already says so; the call is the record, not a value claim.

#3 Drake MayeNew England Patriots · low · volume board Under 20.5 completions pending pending 21+ completions in 8 of 18 in 2025, 20.6 a game. Follows the attempts under above; if he throws 33 times this is wrong too.

#4 Hunter HenryNew England Patriots · low · volume board Under 3.5 receptions pending pending 4+ catches in exactly 9 of 18 in 2025 with Diggs a part-time player. Brown and Doubs arrive; the red-zone role stays but the volume should not.

#5 Jadarian PriceSeattle Seahawks · low · volume board Under 1.5 receptions pending pending A rookie with no NFL snaps, and Holani has the passing downs by the coaches' own account. Walker caught 1.8 a game as the lead back.

#6 George HolaniSeattle Seahawks · low · volume board Under 1.5 receptions pending pending 2+ catches in 1 of 4 games last season, but in a spot role; the passing-down job is new. Charbonnet caught 1.3 a game in it. The weakest call on the board.

A lean is a person's call against a posted line, not an engine output. Grades come from ESPN's box score; a player missing from it is a void, never a zero. Pushes on whole-number lines are voids.