Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+6.8 pts over base). Under is currently the stronger side (+10.5 pts vs +7.4 pts for Over). Down 6.7 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+6.8 pp n=161+9.2 pp n=12779%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · All qualifying70–5755.1%n=1274 void · 0 pending · avg score 89 · 7 slates

All qualifying70–5755.1%n=127

Featured6–275.0%n=8

Other qualifying64–5553.8%n=119

55.1% hit rate, down 6.7 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

SP Strikeouts55%n=127↑ +7 pp74%n=1958%n=1250%n=2455%n=2236%n=1462%n=2147%n=15

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 75–79, 85–89, 90–94 bands remain small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–7418–1260.0%n=302+9.6 pp base 50%

75–79Small sample8–466.7%n=120+3.1 pp base 64%

85–89Small sample1–516.7%n=60-10.6 pp base 27%

90–94Small sample3–1121.4%n=140-18.0 pp base 39%

95–9817–1454.8%n=310+5.4 pp base 49%

99–10023–1167.6%n=342+29.4 pp base 38%

Over vs Under

Over24–3242.9%n=56

Under46–2564.8%n=71

Difference: -21.9 pp · Under stronger

MarketOverUnder

SP Strikeouts42.9% n=5664.8% n=71

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Strikeouts55.1% n=127+9.3 pp base 46%70–5755% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

55.1%

70–57 n=127

Last 30

57.9%

234–170 n=404

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

57.9%

234–170 n=404

All time

57.9%

234–170 n=404

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-08234–17057.9% n=404+11.1 pp base 47%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2884–6556.4% n=149+11.6 pp base 45%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20150–10558.8% n=255+10.7 pp base 48%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.