Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Points carries the strongest edge (+15.1 pts over base). Down 2.0 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Points+15.1 pp n=110+23.0 pp n=8880%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · All qualifying56–3263.6%n=887 void · 0 pending · avg score 94 · 7 slates

All qualifying56–3263.6%n=88

Featured6–366.7%n=9

Other qualifying50–2963.3%n=79

63.6% hit rate, down 2.0 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

Points64%n=88→ +0 pp74%n=1950%n=1060%n=1064%n=1155%n=1171%n=1462%n=13

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74Small sample3–442.9%n=70-2.3 pp base 45%

75–79Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+37.3 pp base 63%

80–84Small sample8–0100.0%n=84+39.3 pp base 61%

85–89Small sample1–0100.0%n=11+49.5 pp base 50%

90–94Small sample5–455.6%n=90+11.9 pp base 44%

95–98Small sample2–250.0%n=40-6.6 pp base 57%

99–10036–2262.1%n=582+27.2 pp base 35%

Over vs Under

Over56–3263.6%n=88

Under0–0Not gradedn=0

MarketOverUnder

Points63.6% n=88Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Points63.6% n=88+22.4 pp base 41%56–3264% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

63.6%

56–32 n=88

Last 30

64.5%

158–87 n=245

Prev 30

100.0%

5–0 n=5

Season

65.2%

163–87 n=250

All time

65.2%

163–87 n=250

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-075–0100.0% n=5+55.8 pp base 44%

2026-08158–8764.5% n=245+21.5 pp base 43%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

WNBA Points

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2862–4160.2% n=103+18.6 pp base 42%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-21101–4668.7% n=147+24.7 pp base 44%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.