Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+6.8 pts over base). Under is currently the stronger side (+10.8 pts vs +2.9 pts for Over). Down 8.7 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+6.8 pp n=161+9.2 pp n=12779%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · Other qualifying64–5553.8%n=1193 void · 0 pending · avg score 88 · 7 slates

All qualifying70–5755.1%n=127

Featured6–275.0%n=8

Other qualifying64–5553.8%n=119

53.8% hit rate, down 8.7 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

SP Strikeouts54%n=119↑ +4 pp74%n=1958%n=1240%n=2055%n=2236%n=1462%n=2145%n=11

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have not produced higher hit rates in this sample. The 75–79, 85–89, 90–94, 99–100 bands remain small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–7418–1260.0%n=302+9.6 pp base 50%

75–79Small sample8–466.7%n=120+3.1 pp base 64%

85–89Small sample1–516.7%n=60-10.6 pp base 27%

90–94Small sample3–1121.4%n=140-18.0 pp base 39%

95–9817–1454.8%n=310+5.4 pp base 49%

99–100Small sample17–965.4%n=261+27.9 pp base 37%

Over vs Under

Over19–3138.0%n=50

Under45–2465.2%n=69

Difference: -27.2 pp · Under stronger

MarketOverUnder

SP Strikeouts38.0% n=5065.2% n=69

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Strikeouts53.8% n=119+7.6 pp base 46%64–5554% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

53.8%

64–55 n=119

Last 30

57.7%

224–164 n=388

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

57.7%

224–164 n=388

All time

57.7%

224–164 n=388

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-08224–16457.7% n=388+10.5 pp base 47%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2875–6055.6% n=135+9.9 pp base 46%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20149–10458.9% n=253+10.7 pp base 48%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.