Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+6.3 pts over base). Down 1.9 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+6.3 pp n=105+10.4 pp n=7168%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · All qualifying46–2564.8%n=711 void · 0 pending · avg score 85 · 7 slates

All qualifying46–2564.8%n=71

Featured1–150.0%n=2

Other qualifying45–2465.2%n=69

64.8% hit rate, down 1.9 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

SP Strikeouts65%n=71↑ +7 pp90%n=1060%n=562%n=1362%n=1362%n=869%n=1344%n=9

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 85–89, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74Small sample16–964.0%n=251+13.5 pp base 51%

75–79Small sample8–466.7%n=120+3.1 pp base 64%

85–89Small sample0–10.0%n=10-50.0 pp base 50%

95–98Small sample15–962.5%n=240+7.0 pp base 56%

99–100Small sample7–277.8%n=90+27.8 pp base 50%

Over vs Under

Over0–0Not gradedn=0

Under46–2564.8%n=71

MarketOverUnder

SP StrikeoutsNot graded n=064.8% n=71

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Strikeouts64.8% n=71+10.5 pp base 54%46–2565% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

64.8%

46–25 n=71

Last 30

63.8%

162–92 n=254

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

63.8%

162–92 n=254

All time

63.8%

162–92 n=254

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-08162–9263.8% n=254+8.1 pp base 56%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2854–2568.4% n=79+14.1 pp base 54%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20108–6761.7% n=175+5.4 pp base 56%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.