Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+7.7 pts over base). Down 14.3 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Strikeouts+7.7 pp n=56+7.7 pp n=56100%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · All qualifying24–3242.9%n=56
All qualifying24–3242.9%n=56
Featured5–183.3%n=6
Other qualifying19–3138.0%n=50
42.9% hit rate, down 14.3 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22
⚾SP Strikeouts43%n=56↑ +13 pp56%n=957%n=736%n=1144%n=90%n=650%n=850%n=6
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample2–340.0%n=51-10.0 pp base 50%
85–89Small sample1–420.0%n=50-2.8 pp base 23%
90–94Small sample3–1121.4%n=140-18.0 pp base 39%
95–98Small sample2–528.6%n=70+0.2 pp base 28%
99–100Small sample16–964.0%n=252+29.6 pp base 34%
Over vs Under
Over24–3242.9%n=56
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
SP Strikeouts42.9% n=56Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Strikeouts42.9% n=56+7.4 pp base 35%24–3243% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
42.9%
24–32 n=56
Last 30
48.0%
72–78 n=150
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
48.0%
72–78 n=150
All time
48.0%
72–78 n=150
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0872–7848.0% n=150+15.7 pp base 32%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Strikeouts
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2830–4042.9% n=70+8.5 pp base 34%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2042–3852.5% n=80+22.0 pp base 30%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.