Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Assists carries the strongest edge (+32.1 pts over base). Batter Hits is the volume leader (1,778 graded, -2.8 pts). Over is currently the stronger side (+10.4 pts vs +7.1 pts for Under). Down 2.6 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Assists+32.1 pp n=68+34.1 pp n=5885%

Rebounds+31.1 pp n=89+33.1 pp n=8191%

Batter Ks+28.2 pp n=36+28.2 pp n=822%

Points+15.1 pp n=110+23.0 pp n=8880%

SP Strikeouts+6.8 pp n=161+9.2 pp n=12779%

SP Hits Allowed-0.6 pp n=161+6.1 pp n=9559%

Batter Hits-2.8 pp n=1,778+3.1 pp n=32818%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · Other qualifying445–28660.9%n=73145 void · 0 pending · avg score 83 · 7 slates

All qualifying483–30261.5%n=785

Featured38–1670.4%n=54

Other qualifying445–28660.9%n=731

60.9% hit rate, down 2.6 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

Batter Hits64%n=328↓ -3 pp68%n=6663%n=1954%n=5051%n=5975%n=3676%n=4663%n=52

SP Strikeouts54%n=127→ +2 pp70%n=2054%n=1343%n=2154%n=2440%n=1561%n=2345%n=11

SP Hits Allowed52%n=91↑ +16 pp65%n=2067%n=936%n=1150%n=1443%n=733%n=1867%n=12

Points63%n=79↓ -6 pp71%n=1744%n=960%n=1064%n=1175%n=864%n=1162%n=13

Rebounds74%n=65→ -1 pp77%n=13100%n=550%n=670%n=1060%n=586%n=1467%n=12

Assists56%n=41↑ +3 pp62%n=80%n=2100%n=260%n=520%n=570%n=1056%n=9

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 85–89 band remains small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74152–8165.2%n=23319+7.0 pp base 58%

75–7990–7056.2%n=16012-0.8 pp base 57%

80–8436–1965.5%n=556+11.1 pp base 54%

85–89Small sample10–952.6%n=191+5.7 pp base 47%

90–9416–2341.0%n=391+0.1 pp base 41%

95–9828–2058.3%n=481+8.3 pp base 50%

99–100113–6463.8%n=1775+26.7 pp base 37%

Over vs Under

Over366–23361.1%n=599

Under79–5359.8%n=132

Difference: +1.3 pp · Over stronger

MarketOverUnder

Batter Hits63.7% n=328Not graded n=0

Batter Ks50.0% n=8Not graded n=0

SP Strikeouts38.0% n=5065.2% n=69

SP Hits Allowed46.4% n=2854.0% n=63

Points63.3% n=79Not graded n=0

Rebounds73.8% n=65Not graded n=0

Assists56.1% n=41Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Rebounds73.8% n=65+33.8 pp base 40%48–1774% 30d

Points63.3% n=79+19.9 pp base 43%50–2963% 30d

Assists56.1% n=41+19.1 pp base 37%23–1856% 30d

SP Strikeouts53.8% n=119+7.6 pp base 46%64–5554% 30d

SP Hits Allowed51.6% n=91+4.7 pp base 47%47–4452% 30d

Batter Hits63.7% n=328+3.1 pp base 61%209–11964% 30d

Below minimum sample

Batter KsSmall50.0% n=8+28.2 pp base 22%4–450% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

60.9%

445–286 n=731

Last 30

61.2%

1496–949 n=2445

Prev 30

63.5%

106–61 n=167

Season

61.3%

1602–1010 n=2612

All time

61.3%

1602–1010 n=2612

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-07106–6163.5% n=167+2.8 pp base 61%

2026-081496–94961.2% n=2445+8.5 pp base 53%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB Batter Hits

batter-hit-v62026-08-21→2026-08-28242–13863.7% n=380+3.0 pp base 61%

4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-20621–36263.2% n=983+2.5 pp base 61%

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2875–6055.6% n=135+9.9 pp base 46%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20149–10458.9% n=253+10.7 pp base 48%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2854–5450.0% n=108+2.9 pp base 47%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20102–10349.8% n=205-3.2 pp base 53%

WNBA Points

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2856–3859.6% n=94+16.1 pp base 43%

4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2196–4667.6% n=142+23.6 pp base 44%

WNBA Rebounds

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2855–2172.4% n=76+33.1 pp base 39%

4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2055–2667.9% n=81+32.3 pp base 36%

WNBA Assists

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2830–2158.8% n=51+23.3 pp base 35%

4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2060–3066.7% n=90+31.1 pp base 36%

MLB Batter Ks

batter-k-v22026-08-21→2026-08-285–455.6% n=9+33.8 pp base 22%

1 earlier version2026-08-15→2026-08-192–340.0% n=5+18.2 pp base 22%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.