Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
Batter Ks carries the strongest edge (+28.2 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Batter Ks+28.2 pp n=36+28.2 pp n=822%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · Other qualifying4–450.0%n=8
All qualifying4–450.0%n=8
Featured0–0Not gradedn=0
Other qualifying4–450.0%n=8
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23
⚾SP Strikeouts50%n=8building sample0%n=10%n=1100%n=150%n=2100%n=150%n=2
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 75–79, 80–84 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample0–0Not gradedn=03
75–79Small sample3–175.0%n=42+53.2 pp base 22%
80–84Small sample1–325.0%n=41+3.2 pp base 22%
Over vs Under
Over4–450.0%n=8
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Batter Ks50.0% n=8Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Below minimum sample
Batter KsSmall50.0% n=8+28.2 pp base 22%4–450% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
50.0%
4–4 n=8
Last 30
50.0%
7–7 n=14
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
50.0%
7–7 n=14
All time
50.0%
7–7 n=14
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-087–750.0% n=14+28.2 pp base 22%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB Batter Ks
batter-k-v22026-08-21→2026-08-285–455.6% n=9+33.8 pp base 22%
1 earlier version2026-08-15→2026-08-192–340.0% n=5+18.2 pp base 22%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.