Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
Rebounds carries the strongest edge (+31.1 pts over base). Down 5.6 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Rebounds+31.1 pp n=89+33.1 pp n=8191%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · Other qualifying48–1773.8%n=65
All qualifying56–2569.1%n=81
Featured8–850.0%n=16
Other qualifying48–1773.8%n=65
73.8% hit rate, down 5.6 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22
🏀Rebounds74%n=65→ -1 pp77%n=13100%n=550%n=670%n=1060%n=586%n=1467%n=12
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+44.9 pp base 55%
75–79Small sample3–350.0%n=60-5.1 pp base 55%
80–84Small sample3–260.0%n=50+22.2 pp base 38%
85–89Small sample3–175.0%n=40+19.9 pp base 55%
90–94Small sample2–166.7%n=30+11.6 pp base 55%
95–98Small sample4–0100.0%n=41+53.6 pp base 46%
99–10032–1076.2%n=422+41.4 pp base 35%
Over vs Under
Over48–1773.8%n=65
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Rebounds73.8% n=65Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Rebounds73.8% n=65+33.8 pp base 40%48–1774% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
73.8%
48–17 n=65
Last 30
70.1%
110–47 n=157
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
70.1%
110–47 n=157
All time
70.1%
110–47 n=157
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08110–4770.1% n=157+32.7 pp base 37%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Rebounds
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2855–2172.4% n=76+33.1 pp base 39%
4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2055–2667.9% n=81+32.3 pp base 36%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.