Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
Assists carries the strongest edge (+32.1 pts over base). Batter Hits is the volume leader (1,778 graded, -2.8 pts). Over is currently the stronger side (+49.7 pts vs -15.5 pts for Under). Down 6.4 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Assists+32.1 pp n=68+34.1 pp n=5885%
Rebounds+31.1 pp n=89+33.1 pp n=8191%
Batter Ks+28.2 pp n=36+28.2 pp n=822%
Points+15.1 pp n=110+23.0 pp n=8880%
SP Strikeouts+6.8 pp n=161+9.2 pp n=12779%
SP Hits Allowed-0.6 pp n=161+6.1 pp n=9559%
Batter Hits-2.8 pp n=1,778+3.1 pp n=32818%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · Featured38–1670.4%n=54
All qualifying483–30261.5%n=785
Featured38–1670.4%n=54
Other qualifying445–28660.9%n=731
70.4% hit rate, down 6.4 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22
⚾SP Strikeouts75%n=8building sample——100%n=4———50%n=4
⚾SP Hits Allowed75%n=4building sample——100%n=1———67%n=3
🏀Points67%n=9building sample100%n=2100%n=1——0%n=3100%n=3—
🏀Rebounds50%n=16building sample67%n=333%n=350%n=233%n=3100%n=30%n=2—
🏀Assists88%n=17building sample100%n=375%n=4100%n=1100%n=450%n=2100%n=3—
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
99–10038–1670.4%n=543+46.2 pp base 24%
Over vs Under
Over37–1472.5%n=51
Under1–233.3%n=3
Difference: +39.2 pp · Over stronger
MarketOverUnder
SP Strikeouts83.3% n=650.0% n=2
SP Hits Allowed100.0% n=30.0% n=1
Points66.7% n=9Not graded n=0
Rebounds50.0% n=16Not graded n=0
Assists88.2% n=17Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Below minimum sample
AssistsSmall88.2% n=17+69.8 pp base 18%15–288% 30d
ReboundsSmall50.0% n=16+29.7 pp base 20%8–850% 30d
PointsSmall66.7% n=9+45.9 pp base 21%6–367% 30d
SP StrikeoutsSmall75.0% n=8+34.3 pp base 41%6–275% 30d
SP Hits AllowedSmall75.0% n=4+37.9 pp base 37%3–175% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
70.4%
38–16 n=54
Last 30
64.3%
110–61 n=171
Prev 30
69.2%
18–8 n=26
Season
65.0%
128–69 n=197
All time
65.0%
128–69 n=197
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0718–869.2% n=26+16.1 pp base 53%
2026-08110–6164.3% n=171+16.6 pp base 48%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB Batter Hits
4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-2077–4563.1% n=122+2.5 pp base 61%
WNBA Rebounds
wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-288–850.0% n=16+29.7 pp base 20%
2 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-201–233.3% n=3+7.8 pp base 26%
WNBA Assists
wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-2815–288.2% n=17+69.8 pp base 18%
1 earlier version2026-07-15→2026-07-161–0100.0% n=1+56.6 pp base 43%
MLB SP Strikeouts
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-269–564.3% n=14+28.0 pp base 36%
2 earlier versions2026-08-10→2026-08-111–150.0% n=2+6.2 pp base 44%
WNBA Points
wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-286–366.7% n=9+45.9 pp base 21%
1 earlier version2026-07-15→2026-07-155–0100.0% n=5+55.8 pp base 44%
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-264–266.7% n=6+31.1 pp base 36%
1 earlier version2026-08-10→2026-08-101–150.0% n=2-13.3 pp base 63%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.