Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+7.9 pts over base). Over is currently the stronger side (+13.8 pts vs +8.5 pts for Under).

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+7.9 pp n=530+11.0 pp n=40476%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 30 days · Other qualifying224–16457.7%n=3886 void · 0 pending · avg score 82 · 22 slates

All qualifying234–17057.9%n=404

Featured10–662.5%n=16

Other qualifying224–16457.7%n=388

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22Aug21

SP Strikeouts58%n=388↑ +4 pp74%n=1958%n=1240%n=2055%n=2236%n=1462%n=2145%n=1169%n=16

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 75–79, 85–89, 90–94 bands remain small.

Current scoring engine only — 256 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–7422–1264.7%n=342+14.3 pp base 50%

75–79Small sample11–473.3%n=150+10.5 pp base 63%

85–89Small sample1–614.3%n=70-12.4 pp base 27%

90–94Small sample5–1131.2%n=160-8.6 pp base 40%

95–9818–1554.5%n=330+6.2 pp base 48%

99–10018–1260.0%n=301+23.6 pp base 36%

Over vs Under

Over63–7446.0%n=137

Under161–9064.1%n=251

Difference: -18.2 pp · Under stronger

MarketOverUnder

SP Strikeouts46.0% n=13764.1% n=251

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Strikeouts57.7% n=388+10.5 pp base 47%224–16458% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

53.8%

64–55 n=119

Last 30

57.7%

224–164 n=388

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

57.7%

224–164 n=388

All time

57.7%

224–164 n=388

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-08224–16457.7% n=388+10.5 pp base 47%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2875–6055.6% n=135+9.9 pp base 46%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20149–10458.9% n=253+10.7 pp base 48%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.