Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Assists carries the strongest edge (+32.1 pts over base). Batter Hits is the volume leader (1,778 graded, -2.8 pts). Down 4.2 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Assists+32.1 pp n=68+34.1 pp n=5885%

Rebounds+31.1 pp n=89+33.1 pp n=8191%

Batter Ks+28.2 pp n=36+28.2 pp n=822%

Points+15.1 pp n=110+23.0 pp n=8880%

SP Hits Allowed+14.0 pp n=31+14.0 pp n=31100%

SP Strikeouts+7.7 pp n=56+7.7 pp n=56100%

Batter Hits-2.8 pp n=1,778+3.1 pp n=32818%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · Featured37–1472.5%n=513 void · 0 pending · avg score 100 · 7 slates

All qualifying403–24762.0%n=650

Featured37–1472.5%n=51

Other qualifying366–23361.1%n=599

72.5% hit rate, down 4.2 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

SP Strikeouts83%n=6building sample——100%n=3———67%n=3

SP Hits Allowed100%n=3building sample——100%n=1———100%n=2

Points67%n=9building sample100%n=2100%n=1——0%n=3100%n=3—

Rebounds50%n=16building sample67%n=333%n=350%n=233%n=3100%n=30%n=2—

Assists88%n=17building sample100%n=375%n=4100%n=1100%n=450%n=2100%n=3—

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

99–10037–1472.5%n=513+49.7 pp base 23%

Over vs Under

Over37–1472.5%n=51

Under0–0Not gradedn=0

MarketOverUnder

SP Strikeouts83.3% n=6Not graded n=0

SP Hits Allowed100.0% n=3Not graded n=0

Points66.7% n=9Not graded n=0

Rebounds50.0% n=16Not graded n=0

Assists88.2% n=17Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Below minimum sample

AssistsSmall88.2% n=17+69.8 pp base 18%15–288% 30d

ReboundsSmall50.0% n=16+29.7 pp base 20%8–850% 30d

PointsSmall66.7% n=9+45.9 pp base 21%6–367% 30d

SP StrikeoutsSmall83.3% n=6+45.3 pp base 38%5–183% 30d

SP Hits AllowedSmall100.0% n=3+66.0 pp base 34%3–0100% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

72.5%

37–14 n=51

Last 30

65.5%

108–57 n=165

Prev 30

69.2%

18–8 n=26

Season

66.0%

126–65 n=191

All time

66.0%

126–65 n=191

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-0718–869.2% n=26+16.1 pp base 53%

2026-08108–5765.5% n=165+18.1 pp base 47%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB Batter Hits

4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-2077–4563.1% n=122+2.5 pp base 61%

WNBA Rebounds

wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-288–850.0% n=16+29.7 pp base 20%

2 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-201–233.3% n=3+7.8 pp base 26%

WNBA Assists

wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-2815–288.2% n=17+69.8 pp base 18%

1 earlier version2026-07-15→2026-07-161–0100.0% n=1+56.6 pp base 43%

WNBA Points

wnba-pra-v42026-08-23→2026-08-286–366.7% n=9+45.9 pp base 21%

1 earlier version2026-07-15→2026-07-155–0100.0% n=5+55.8 pp base 44%

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-268–466.7% n=12+32.4 pp base 34%

1 earlier version2026-08-11→2026-08-111–0100.0% n=1+77.2 pp base 23%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-264–180.0% n=5+46.6 pp base 33%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.