Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-0.6 pts over base). Over is currently the stronger side (+66.0 pts vs -46.6 pts for Under).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-0.6 pp n=161+6.1 pp n=9559%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · Featured3–175.0%n=4
All qualifying50–4552.6%n=95
Featured3–175.0%n=4
Other qualifying47–4451.6%n=91
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug26Aug22
⚾SP Hits Allowed75%n=4building sample100%n=167%n=3
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 99–100 band remains small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
99–100Small sample3–175.0%n=40+37.9 pp base 37%
Over vs Under
Over3–0100.0%n=3
Under0–10.0%n=1
Difference: +100.0 pp · Over stronger
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed100.0% n=30.0% n=1
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Below minimum sample
SP Hits AllowedSmall75.0% n=4+37.9 pp base 37%3–175% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
75.0%
3–1 n=4
Last 30
62.5%
5–3 n=8
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
62.5%
5–3 n=8
All time
62.5%
5–3 n=8
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-085–362.5% n=8+20.0 pp base 43%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-264–266.7% n=6+31.1 pp base 36%
1 earlier version2026-08-10→2026-08-101–150.0% n=2-13.3 pp base 63%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.