Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-0.6 pts over base). Over is currently the stronger side (+14.0 pts vs +2.2 pts for Under). Up 7.4 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-0.6 pp n=161+6.1 pp n=9559%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · All qualifying50–4552.6%n=95
All qualifying50–4552.6%n=95
Featured3–175.0%n=4
Other qualifying47–4451.6%n=91
52.6% hit rate, up 7.4 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22
⚾SP Hits Allowed53%n=95↑ +18 pp65%n=2067%n=942%n=1250%n=1443%n=733%n=1867%n=15
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 70–74, 80–84, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample4–0100.0%n=40+53.4 pp base 47%
75–7917–2144.7%n=382-6.5 pp base 51%
80–84Small sample0–30.0%n=30-43.3 pp base 43%
90–94Small sample5–741.7%n=121+5.0 pp base 37%
95–98Small sample0–10.0%n=10-63.3 pp base 63%
99–10024–1364.9%n=370+20.0 pp base 45%
Over vs Under
Over16–1551.6%n=31
Under34–3053.1%n=64
Difference: -1.5 pp · Under stronger
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed51.6% n=3153.1% n=64
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed52.6% n=95+6.1 pp base 47%50–4553% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
52.6%
50–45 n=95
Last 30
50.2%
161–160 n=321
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
50.2%
161–160 n=321
All time
50.2%
161–160 n=321
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08161–16050.2% n=321-0.5 pp base 51%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2858–5650.9% n=114+4.3 pp base 47%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20103–10449.8% n=207-3.3 pp base 53%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.