SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-3.1 pts over base). Over is currently the stronger side (+6.3 pts vs -2.6 pts for Under).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-3.1 pp n=530-0.6 pp n=32161%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
2026 season · All qualifying161–16050.2%n=3215 void · 0 pending · avg score 81 · 22 slates
All qualifying161–16050.2%n=321
Featured5–362.5%n=8
Other qualifying156–15749.8%n=313
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 70–74, 80–84, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 209 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample4–0100.0%n=40+53.4 pp base 47%
75–7918–2541.9%n=432-9.6 pp base 51%
80–84Small sample0–30.0%n=30-43.3 pp base 43%
90–94Small sample8–947.1%n=171+10.4 pp base 37%
95–98Small sample0–10.0%n=10-63.3 pp base 63%
99–10028–1860.9%n=460+15.4 pp base 45%
Over vs Under
Over31–4242.5%n=73
Under130–11852.4%n=248
Difference: -10.0 pp · Under stronger
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=7352.4% n=248
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed50.2% n=321-0.5 pp base 51%161–16050% 30d
Consistency
Last 30
50.2%
161–160 n=321
All time
50.2%
161–160 n=321
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08161–16050.2% n=321-0.5 pp base 51%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2858–5650.9% n=114+4.3 pp base 47%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20103–10449.8% n=207-3.3 pp base 53%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.