Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-4.9 pts over base). Up 2.3 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-4.9 pp n=129+2.6 pp n=6248%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · All qualifying33–2953.2%n=62
All qualifying33–2953.2%n=62
Featured0–0Not gradedn=0
Other qualifying33–2953.2%n=62
53.2% hit rate, up 2.3 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug29Aug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23
⚾SP Hits Allowed53%n=62↑ +28 pp64%n=1169%n=1362%n=838%n=825%n=860%n=544%n=9
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 80–84, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample3–0100.0%n=30+53.2 pp base 47%
75–7916–2143.2%n=372-7.4 pp base 51%
80–84Small sample1–233.3%n=30-13.5 pp base 47%
95–98Small sample0–10.0%n=10-63.5 pp base 63%
99–100Small sample13–572.2%n=180+20.8 pp base 51%
Over vs Under
Over0–0Not gradedn=0
Under33–2953.2%n=62
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits AllowedNot graded n=053.2% n=62
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed53.2% n=62+2.5 pp base 51%33–2953% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
53.2%
33–29 n=62
Last 30
52.9%
137–122 n=259
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
52.9%
137–122 n=259
All time
52.9%
137–122 n=259
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08137–12252.9% n=259-2.1 pp base 55%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2944–4251.2% n=86-0.0 pp base 51%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2093–8053.8% n=173-3.1 pp base 57%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.