Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (+14.0 pts over base). Up 7.9 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed+14.0 pp n=31+14.0 pp n=31100%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · All qualifying16–1551.6%n=31
All qualifying16–1551.6%n=31
Featured3–0100.0%n=3
Other qualifying13–1546.4%n=28
51.6% hit rate, up 7.9 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22
⚾SP Hits Allowed52%n=31↑ +17 pp57%n=7100%n=150%n=483%n=60%n=222%n=9100%n=2
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 80–84, 90–94, 99–100 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
80–84Small sample0–10.0%n=10-36.7 pp base 37%
90–94Small sample5–741.7%n=121+5.0 pp base 37%
99–100Small sample11–761.1%n=180+22.8 pp base 38%
Over vs Under
Over16–1551.6%n=31
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed51.6% n=31Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed51.6% n=31+14.0 pp base 38%16–1552% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
51.6%
16–15 n=31
Last 30
42.5%
31–42 n=73
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
42.5%
31–42 n=73
All time
42.5%
31–42 n=73
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0831–4242.5% n=73+6.3 pp base 36%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2821–1853.8% n=39+16.6 pp base 37%
2 earlier versions2026-08-05→2026-08-2010–2429.4% n=34-5.4 pp base 35%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.