Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (+3.8 pts over base).

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Hits Allowed+3.8 pp n=86+6.4 pp n=7385%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 30 days · All qualifying31–4242.5%n=732 void · 0 pending · avg score 86 · 18 slates

All qualifying31–4242.5%n=73

Featured4–180.0%n=5

Other qualifying27–4139.7%n=68

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22Aug21

SP Hits Allowed42%n=73↑ +17 pp57%n=7100%n=150%n=483%n=60%n=222%n=9100%n=262%n=8

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 80–84, 90–94, 99–100 bands remain small.

Current scoring engine only — 35 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

80–84Small sample0–10.0%n=10-36.7 pp base 37%

90–94Small sample8–947.1%n=171+10.4 pp base 37%

99–100Small sample13–861.9%n=210+24.2 pp base 38%

Over vs Under

Over31–4242.5%n=73

Under0–0Not gradedn=0

MarketOverUnder

SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=73Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=73+6.3 pp base 36%31–4242% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

51.6%

16–15 n=31

Last 30

42.5%

31–42 n=73

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

42.5%

31–42 n=73

All time

42.5%

31–42 n=73

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-0831–4242.5% n=73+6.3 pp base 36%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2821–1853.8% n=39+16.6 pp base 37%

2 earlier versions2026-08-05→2026-08-2010–2429.4% n=34-5.4 pp base 35%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.