Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+6.3 pts over base). SP Hits Allowed is the volume leader (130 graded, -4.0 pts). Up 2.7 points vs previous 7 days.

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+6.3 pp n=105+10.4 pp n=7168%

SP Hits Allowed-4.0 pp n=130+2.4 pp n=6449%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 7 days · All qualifying80–5559.3%n=1353 void · 0 pending · avg score 84 · 7 slates

All qualifying80–5559.3%n=135

Featured1–233.3%n=3

Other qualifying79–5359.8%n=132

59.3% hit rate, up 2.7 percentage points vs previous 7 days

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22

SP Strikeouts65%n=71↑ +7 pp90%n=1060%n=562%n=1362%n=1362%n=869%n=1344%n=9

SP Hits Allowed53%n=64↑ +18 pp69%n=1362%n=838%n=825%n=860%n=544%n=962%n=13

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 80–84, 85–89, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74Small sample20–969.0%n=291+18.9 pp base 50%

75–7925–2550.0%n=502-4.1 pp base 54%

80–84Small sample0–20.0%n=20-46.6 pp base 47%

85–89Small sample0–10.0%n=10-50.0 pp base 50%

95–98Small sample15–1060.0%n=250+4.1 pp base 56%

99–100Small sample20–871.4%n=280+20.8 pp base 51%

Over vs Under

Over0–0Not gradedn=0

Under80–5559.3%n=135

MarketOverUnder

SP StrikeoutsNot graded n=064.8% n=71

SP Hits AllowedNot graded n=053.1% n=64

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

SP Strikeouts64.8% n=71+10.5 pp base 54%46–2565% 30d

SP Hits Allowed53.1% n=64+2.2 pp base 51%34–3053% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

59.3%

80–55 n=135

Last 30

58.2%

292–210 n=502

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

58.2%

292–210 n=502

All time

58.2%

292–210 n=502

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-08292–21058.2% n=502+2.8 pp base 55%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2854–2568.4% n=79+14.1 pp base 54%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-20108–6761.7% n=175+5.4 pp base 56%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2837–3849.3% n=75-2.0 pp base 51%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2093–8053.8% n=173-2.9 pp base 57%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.