Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (+2.2 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed+2.2 pp n=92+4.3 pp n=7986%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 30 days · Featured4–180.0%n=5
All qualifying32–4740.5%n=79
Featured4–180.0%n=5
Other qualifying28–4637.8%n=74
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug26Aug22Aug21
⚾SP Hits Allowed80%n=5building sample100%n=1100%n=250%n=2
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 99–100 band remains small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
99–100Small sample4–180.0%n=50+46.7 pp base 33%
Over vs Under
Over4–180.0%n=5
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed80.0% n=5Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Below minimum sample
SP Hits AllowedSmall80.0% n=5+46.7 pp base 33%4–180% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
100.0%
1–0 n=1
Last 30
80.0%
4–1 n=5
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
80.0%
4–1 n=5
All time
80.0%
4–1 n=5
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-084–180.0% n=5+46.7 pp base 33%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-264–180.0% n=5+46.7 pp base 33%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.