SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (+2.2 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed+2.2 pp n=92+4.3 pp n=7986%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 30 days · Other qualifying28–4637.8%n=743 void · 0 pending · avg score 85 · 18 slates
All qualifying32–4740.5%n=79
Featured4–180.0%n=5
Other qualifying28–4637.8%n=74
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 80–84, 90–94, 99–100 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 35 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
80–84Small sample0–10.0%n=10-36.5 pp base 37%
90–94Small sample9–1340.9%n=221+4.4 pp base 37%
99–100Small sample9–852.9%n=171+13.4 pp base 40%
Over vs Under
Over28–4637.8%n=74
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits Allowed37.8% n=74Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed37.8% n=74+1.4 pp base 36%28–4638% 30d
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0828–4637.8% n=74+1.4 pp base 36%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2918–2245.0% n=40+7.2 pp base 38%
2 earlier versions2026-08-05→2026-08-2010–2429.4% n=34-5.3 pp base 35%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.