Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Assists carries the strongest edge (+23.2 pts over base). Batter Hits is the volume leader (5,938 graded, -3.6 pts).

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Assists+23.2 pp n=269+33.0 pp n=15959%

Rebounds+18.3 pp n=322+32.1 pp n=17655%

Batter Ks+16.6 pp n=138+28.2 pp n=1410%

SP Strikeouts+14.8 pp n=166+15.8 pp n=15090%

Points+8.8 pp n=449+22.6 pp n=25056%

SP Hits Allowed+3.8 pp n=86+6.4 pp n=7385%

Batter Hits-3.6 pp n=5,938+2.7 pp n=1,48525%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 90 days · All qualifying1438–86962.3%n=2307269 void · 0 pending · avg score 82 · 27 slates

All qualifying1438–86962.3%n=2307

Featured126–6566.0%n=191

Other qualifying1312–80462.0%n=2116

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22Aug21

Batter Hits63%n=1485↓ -3 pp68%n=6663%n=1954%n=5051%n=5975%n=3676%n=4663%n=5263%n=52

SP Strikeouts48%n=164↑ +7 pp50%n=1050%n=842%n=1245%n=1114%n=750%n=1050%n=647%n=15

SP Hits Allowed42%n=73↑ +17 pp57%n=7100%n=150%n=483%n=60%n=222%n=9100%n=262%n=8

Points65%n=250→ +0 pp74%n=1950%n=1060%n=1064%n=1155%n=1171%n=1462%n=1340%n=15

Rebounds68%n=176→ -2 pp75%n=1675%n=850%n=862%n=1375%n=875%n=1667%n=1264%n=11

Assists67%n=159↑ +4 pp73%n=1150%n=6100%n=378%n=929%n=777%n=1356%n=970%n=10

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Higher score bands have generally produced higher observed hit rates. The 85–89, 95–98 bands remain small.

Current scoring engine only — 1,767 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74156–8564.7%n=24121+5.7 pp base 59%

75–7974–5258.7%n=12610+0.1 pp base 59%

80–8437–2163.8%n=586+9.6 pp base 54%

85–89Small sample13–959.1%n=221+11.8 pp base 47%

90–9424–2648.0%n=501+6.8 pp base 41%

95–98Small sample13–1252.0%n=251+9.4 pp base 43%

99–100151–8863.2%n=2398+31.4 pp base 32%

Over vs Under

Over1438–86962.3%n=2307

Under0–0Not gradedn=0

MarketOverUnder

Batter Hits63.3% n=1485Not graded n=0

Batter Ks50.0% n=14Not graded n=0

SP Strikeouts48.0% n=150Not graded n=0

SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=73Not graded n=0

Points65.2% n=250Not graded n=0

Rebounds67.6% n=176Not graded n=0

Assists66.7% n=159Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Assists66.7% n=159+32.6 pp base 34%106–5367% 30d

Rebounds67.6% n=176+32.1 pp base 35%119–5768% 30d

Points65.2% n=250+22.2 pp base 43%163–8765% 30d

SP Strikeouts48.0% n=150+15.7 pp base 32%72–7848% 30d

SP Hits Allowed42.5% n=73+6.3 pp base 36%31–4242% 30d

Batter Hits63.3% n=1485+2.7 pp base 61%940–54563% 30d

Below minimum sample

Batter KsSmall50.0% n=14+28.2 pp base 22%7–750% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

62.0%

403–247 n=650

Last 30

62.2%

1314–800 n=2114

Prev 30

64.2%

124–69 n=193

Season

62.3%

1438–869 n=2307

All time

62.3%

1438–869 n=2307

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-07124–6964.2% n=193+4.5 pp base 60%

2026-081314–80062.2% n=2114+10.5 pp base 52%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB Batter Hits

batter-hit-v62026-08-21→2026-08-28242–13863.7% n=380+3.0 pp base 61%

4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-20698–40763.2% n=1105+2.5 pp base 61%

WNBA Points

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2862–4160.2% n=103+18.6 pp base 42%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-21101–4668.7% n=147+24.7 pp base 44%

WNBA Rebounds

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2863–2968.5% n=92+32.7 pp base 36%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2056–2866.7% n=84+31.5 pp base 35%

WNBA Assists

wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2845–2366.2% n=68+34.9 pp base 31%

4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2061–3067.0% n=91+31.1 pp base 36%

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2830–4042.9% n=70+8.5 pp base 34%

3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2042–3852.5% n=80+22.0 pp base 30%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2821–1853.8% n=39+16.6 pp base 37%

2 earlier versions2026-08-05→2026-08-2010–2429.4% n=34-5.4 pp base 35%

MLB Batter Ks

batter-k-v22026-08-21→2026-08-285–455.6% n=9+33.8 pp base 22%

1 earlier version2026-08-15→2026-08-192–340.0% n=5+18.2 pp base 22%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.