SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+15.6 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Strikeouts+15.6 pp n=176+16.6 pp n=16091%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 90 days · All qualifying79–8149.4%n=1605 void · 0 pending · avg score 86 · 23 slates
All qualifying79–8149.4%n=160
Featured10–471.4%n=14
Other qualifying69–7747.3%n=146
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 82 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample4–357.1%n=71+7.2 pp base 50%
85–89Small sample1–614.3%n=70-8.5 pp base 23%
90–94Small sample6–1331.6%n=190-8.2 pp base 40%
95–98Small sample3–633.3%n=90+2.4 pp base 31%
99–10023–1560.5%n=382+27.3 pp base 33%
Over vs Under
Over79–8149.4%n=160
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
SP Strikeouts49.4% n=160Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Strikeouts49.4% n=160+16.5 pp base 33%79–8149% 30d
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0879–8149.4% n=160+16.5 pp base 33%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Strikeouts
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2937–4346.2% n=80+11.1 pp base 35%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2042–3852.5% n=80+22.1 pp base 30%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.