Points carries the strongest edge (+8.8 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Points+8.8 pp n=449+22.6 pp n=25056%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
2026 season · All qualifying163–8765.2%n=25015 void · 0 pending · avg score 84 · 22 slates
All qualifying163–8765.2%n=250
Featured11–378.6%n=14
Other qualifying152–8464.4%n=236
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 155 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample5–645.5%n=110-1.7 pp base 47%
75–79Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+37.3 pp base 63%
80–84Small sample8–188.9%n=94+29.9 pp base 59%
85–89Small sample1–0100.0%n=11+49.5 pp base 50%
90–94Small sample7–558.3%n=120+12.0 pp base 46%
95–98Small sample2–340.0%n=50-12.9 pp base 53%
99–10038–2659.4%n=642+24.4 pp base 35%
Over vs Under
Over163–8765.2%n=250
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Points65.2% n=250Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Points65.2% n=250+22.2 pp base 43%163–8765% 30d
Consistency
All time
65.2%
163–87 n=250
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-075–0100.0% n=5+55.8 pp base 44%
2026-08158–8764.5% n=245+21.5 pp base 43%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Points
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2862–4160.2% n=103+18.6 pp base 42%
4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-21101–4668.7% n=147+24.7 pp base 44%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.