Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

Batter Hits carries the strongest edge (-3.6 pts over base).

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

Batter Hits-3.6 pp n=5,938+2.7 pp n=1,48525%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

2026 season · All qualifying940–54563.3%n=1485220 void · 0 pending · avg score 80 · 26 slates

All qualifying940–54563.3%n=1485

Featured77–4563.1%n=122

Other qualifying863–50063.3%n=1363

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23Aug22Aug21

Batter Hits63%n=1485↓ -3 pp68%n=6663%n=1954%n=5051%n=5975%n=3676%n=4663%n=5263%n=52

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Score bands have produced broadly similar hit rates so far. The 85–89 band remains small.

Current scoring engine only — 1,301 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

70–74147–7665.9%n=22316+5.3 pp base 61%

75–7967–4858.3%n=1157-2.4 pp base 61%

80–8423–1265.7%n=351+5.1 pp base 61%

85–89Small sample5–271.4%n=70+10.8 pp base 61%

Over vs Under

Over940–54563.3%n=1485

Under0–0Not gradedn=0

MarketOverUnder

Batter Hits63.3% n=1485Not graded n=0

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Batter Hits63.3% n=1485+2.7 pp base 61%940–54563% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

63.7%

209–119 n=328

Last 30

63.2%

822–478 n=1300

Prev 30

63.8%

118–67 n=185

Season

63.3%

940–545 n=1485

All time

63.3%

940–545 n=1485

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-07118–6763.8% n=185+3.1 pp base 61%

2026-08822–47863.2% n=1300+2.6 pp base 61%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB Batter Hits

batter-hit-v62026-08-21→2026-08-28242–13863.7% n=380+3.0 pp base 61%

4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-20698–40763.2% n=1105+2.5 pp base 61%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.