Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
Points carries the strongest edge (+14.1 pts over base). Down 3.4 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Points+14.1 pp n=103+18.9 pp n=8280%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered. Judged on the engine running today: a superseded scorer’s serving share is not a fact about the current one. The columns stay pooled across versions.
Last 7 days · Other qualifying44–2960.3%n=73
All qualifying50–3261.0%n=82
Featured6–366.7%n=9
Other qualifying44–2960.3%n=73
60.3% hit rate, down 3.4 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug29Aug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23
🏀Points60%n=73↓ -11 pp29%n=771%n=1744%n=960%n=1064%n=1175%n=864%n=11
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample3–442.9%n=70-2.2 pp base 45%
75–79Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+37.3 pp base 63%
80–84Small sample8–0100.0%n=86+40.8 pp base 59%
85–89Small sample1–0100.0%n=11+49.7 pp base 50%
90–94Small sample5–550.0%n=100+7.1 pp base 43%
95–98Small sample3–260.0%n=50+2.2 pp base 58%
99–10023–1856.1%n=412+17.0 pp base 39%
Over vs Under
Over44–2960.3%n=73
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Points60.3% n=73Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Points60.3% n=73+15.1 pp base 45%44–2960% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
60.3%
44–29 n=73
Last 30
63.4%
154–89 n=243
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
63.4%
154–89 n=243
All time
63.4%
154–89 n=243
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08154–8963.4% n=243+19.6 pp base 44%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Points
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2958–4357.4% n=101+13.9 pp base 44%
4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2196–4667.6% n=142+23.7 pp base 44%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.