Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
Assists carries the strongest edge (+32.1 pts over base). Down 13.1 points vs previous 7 days.
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Assists+32.1 pp n=65+34.3 pp n=5585%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 7 days · Other qualifying19–1752.8%n=36
All qualifying36–1965.5%n=55
Featured17–289.5%n=19
Other qualifying19–1752.8%n=36
52.8% hit rate, down 13.1 percentage points vs previous 7 days
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug29Aug28Aug27Aug26Aug25Aug24Aug23
🏀Assists53%n=36↓ -7 pp25%n=462%n=80%n=2100%n=260%n=520%n=570%n=10
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
75–79Small sample0–0Not gradedn=01
80–84Small sample2–166.7%n=30+16.8 pp base 50%
85–89Small sample1–150.0%n=20+0.1 pp base 50%
90–94Small sample2–0100.0%n=20+50.1 pp base 50%
95–98Small sample4–266.7%n=60+16.8 pp base 50%
99–100Small sample10–1343.5%n=230+12.3 pp base 31%
Over vs Under
Over19–1752.8%n=36
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Assists52.8% n=36Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Assists52.8% n=36+14.5 pp base 38%19–1753% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
52.8%
19–17 n=36
Last 30
62.8%
91–54 n=145
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
62.8%
91–54 n=145
All time
62.8%
91–54 n=145
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0891–5462.8% n=145+27.2 pp base 36%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Assists
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2931–2456.4% n=55+20.8 pp base 36%
4 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2060–3066.7% n=90+31.1 pp base 36%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.