Rebounds carries the strongest edge (+18.1 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Rebounds+18.1 pp n=330+31.1 pp n=18456%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered. Judged on the engine running today: a superseded scorer’s serving share is not a fact about the current one. The columns stay pooled across versions.
2026 season · All qualifying122–6266.3%n=18410 void · 0 pending · avg score 87 · 24 slates
All qualifying122–6266.3%n=184
Featured10–1245.5%n=22
Other qualifying112–5069.1%n=162
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 88 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+44.9 pp base 55%
75–79Small sample3–350.0%n=60-5.1 pp base 55%
80–84Small sample3–350.0%n=60+13.0 pp base 37%
85–89Small sample4–180.0%n=50+24.9 pp base 55%
90–94Small sample3–175.0%n=40+25.3 pp base 50%
95–98Small sample4–180.0%n=51+35.8 pp base 44%
99–10048–2565.8%n=735+35.1 pp base 31%
Over vs Under
Over122–6266.3%n=184
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Rebounds66.3% n=184Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Rebounds66.3% n=184+31.1 pp base 35%122–6266% 30d
Consistency
All time
66.3%
122–62 n=184
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-070–20.0% n=2-30.7 pp base 31%
2026-08122–6067.0% n=182+31.8 pp base 35%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Rebounds
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2966–3466.0% n=100+30.8 pp base 35%
4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2056–2866.7% n=84+31.6 pp base 35%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.