Performance
SP Hits Allowed is the strongest edge on this slate — +8.7 pts over its own base rate across 137 graded predictions.
SP Strikeouts shows no measured edge either way (+4.6 pts over base, n=157).
Overall hit rate is 60.9%, +6.5 pts over baseline — up 1.5 points on the previous 30 days, which ran +4.8 pts.
Performance summary
The model is modestly ahead of baseline over this period (+6.5 pts on 294 graded predictions).
What's working
Every market ranked by the edge it holds over the rate its own event happens without us — not by how often it converts. The tables further down read served predictions only, so the “all” figure beside each edge is the check that a market which never clears the floor is not mistaken for one that does not work.
Trust board
The page’s verdict, from edge over baseline, sample size and recent trend together — never from hit rate alone. A tier with nothing in it is not shown.
- SP Hits Allowed+8.7 pts n=137
- SP Strikeouts+4.6 pts n=157
Score calibration
The scoring system is worth having only if a higher score means a better outcome. Each band is measured against the base rate of the props it actually holds — the top band is almost purely 1+ hit, so a raw-rate reading of this table would credit it for carrying a common event.
Score is doing its job: every band above the last performs better over base, +16.2 pts from 70–74 to 99–100.
Predictions scored 90+ outperform everything below them by 7.4 pts over base (n=117).
Scores between 75–79 and 99–100 are not separating from each other.
The 80–84 and 85–89 bands remain small; read them as an observation, not a rate.
Where the model has edge
Segments by market, ranked by lift over their own base rate. Anything under the minimum sample is separated and labelled rather than ranked alongside — a high percentage on twenty predictions is not a discovered edge.
Over vs Under
Only Under predictions were served in this selection (+6.5 pts over base, n=294), so the two sides cannot be compared.
Consistency
Performance has been stable around 59%–61% across every window with a real sample.
Market pulse
Each market’s recent slates against its own period average. The trend column is the row’s answer; the grid behind it fades with age.
By month
Model version performance
2 of 2 current model versions are outperforming the versions they replaced.
Methodology
- Edge over baseline, never a raw hit rate
- Every “vs base” figure is the observed hit rate minus how often that exact prop’s event happens on its own, for the population that could plausibly have been offered it. A batter getting 1+ hit happens ~61% of the time unprompted; a starter striking out 8+ happens ~13% of the time. Against one shared average the rare-event markets look bad no matter how well they are picked.
- Opportunity Score is a ranking signal, not a probability
- 70 is the publication floor. A 93 is not “93% likely” — it is an estimate of edge over the market’s own base rate. Observed hit rates on this page are outcomes, not forecasts.
- Sample size is a headline, not a footnote
- Under 30 graded predictions a segment is separated and marked rather than ranked. Predictions inside one slate are correlated, so a run of good days is less independent evidence than its count suggests.
- Cohorts
- All qualifying is every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the eight carried on Today. Other qualifying is the remainder — the split exists to check that ranking, not just scoring, is doing something.
- Calibration reads the current engine only
- A superseded scorer’s calibration is not a fact about the one running today. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not. Per-version records stay in the model table above.
- What is not here
- No odds are consumed anywhere on this page. Total bases and batter walks are excluded — both were retired for being unservable rather than for being wrong. Voids and pending predictions are excluded from every hit rate.