Are the signals earning trust?

Performance

SP Strikeouts carries the strongest edge (+4.7 pts over base). SP Hits Allowed is the volume leader (444 graded, -4.4 pts).

What's working

Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.

MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served

SP Strikeouts+4.7 pp n=364+8.1 pp n=25470%

SP Hits Allowed-4.4 pp n=444-2.7 pp n=24856%

“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.

Last 90 days · Featured2–433.3%n=60 void · 0 pending · avg score 97 · 3 slates

All qualifying292–21058.2%n=502

Featured2–433.3%n=6

Other qualifying290–20658.5%n=496

Deeper diagnostics

Market pulse

Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.

MarketPeriodAug26Aug22Aug10

SP Strikeouts33%n=3building sample100%n=10%n=10%n=1

SP Hits Allowed33%n=3building sample—0%n=150%n=2

Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions

Does a higher score perform better?

Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 99–100 band remains small.

Current scoring engine only — 3 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.

Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base

99–100Small sample1–233.3%n=30-15.5 pp base 49%

Over vs Under

Over0–0Not gradedn=0

Under2–433.3%n=6

MarketOverUnder

SP StrikeoutsNot graded n=033.3% n=3

SP Hits AllowedNot graded n=033.3% n=3

Edge finder

SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend

Below minimum sample

SP StrikeoutsSmall33.3% n=3-21.6 pp base 55%1–233% 30d

SP Hits AllowedSmall33.3% n=3-24.4 pp base 58%1–233% 30d

Consistency

Last 7

33.3%

1–2 n=3

Last 30

33.3%

2–4 n=6

Prev 30

Not graded

0–0

Season

33.3%

2–4 n=6

All time

33.3%

2–4 n=6

By month

MonthRecordHit ratevs base

2026-082–433.3% n=6-23.0 pp base 56%

Model versions

VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base

MLB SP Strikeouts

sp-v42026-08-22→2026-08-261–150.0% n=2+0.0 pp base 50%

1 earlier version2026-08-10→2026-08-100–10.0% n=1-64.8 pp base 65%

MLB SP Hits Allowed

sp-v42026-08-22→2026-08-220–10.0% n=1-46.6 pp base 47%

1 earlier version2026-08-10→2026-08-101–150.0% n=2-13.3 pp base 63%

All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.