SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-3.9 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-3.9 pp n=465-2.1 pp n=25956%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 90 days · Other qualifying136–12053.1%n=2563 void · 0 pending · avg score 79 · 23 slates
All qualifying137–12252.9%n=259
Featured1–233.3%n=3
Other qualifying136–12053.1%n=256
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 70–74, 80–84, 95–98, 99–100 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 172 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
70–74Small sample4–0100.0%n=40+53.2 pp base 47%
75–7922–2943.1%n=512-7.8 pp base 51%
80–84Small sample1–233.3%n=30-13.5 pp base 47%
95–98Small sample0–10.0%n=10-63.5 pp base 63%
99–100Small sample17–965.4%n=260+12.8 pp base 53%
Over vs Under
Over0–0Not gradedn=0
Under136–12053.1%n=256
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits AllowedNot graded n=053.1% n=256
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
SP Hits Allowed53.1% n=256-1.8 pp base 55%136–12053% 30d
Consistency
Last 30
53.1%
136–120 n=256
All time
53.1%
136–120 n=256
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-08136–12053.1% n=256-1.8 pp base 55%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2944–4151.8% n=85+0.5 pp base 51%
3 earlier versions2026-08-03→2026-08-2092–7953.8% n=171-3.0 pp base 57%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.