Batter Hits carries the strongest edge (-3.6 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Batter Hits-3.6 pp n=6,248+3.1 pp n=1,54725%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 90 days · Featured77–4563.1%n=12213 void · 0 pending · avg score 98 · 18 slates
All qualifying986–56163.7%n=1547
Featured77–4563.1%n=122
Other qualifying909–51663.8%n=1425
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 135 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
80–84Small sample0–0Not gradedn=01
85–89Small sample1–150.0%n=20-10.6 pp base 61%
90–94Small sample10–376.9%n=130+16.3 pp base 61%
95–98Small sample18–772.0%n=250+11.4 pp base 61%
99–10048–3458.5%n=8212-2.1 pp base 61%
Over vs Under
Over77–4563.1%n=122
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Batter Hits63.1% n=122Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Batter Hits63.1% n=122+2.5 pp base 61%77–4563% 30d
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-0712–666.7% n=18+6.1 pp base 61%
2026-0865–3962.5% n=104+1.9 pp base 61%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB Batter Hits
4 earlier versions2026-07-05→2026-08-2077–4563.1% n=122+2.5 pp base 61%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.