Assists carries the strongest edge (+23.2 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually
serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a
market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the
same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
Assists+23.2 pp n=269+33.0 pp n=15959%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
2026 season · All qualifying106–5366.7%n=15911 void · 0 pending · avg score 85 · 23 slates
All qualifying106–5366.7%n=159
Featured16–288.9%n=18
Other qualifying90–5163.8%n=141
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, 95–98 bands remain small.
Current scoring engine only — 101 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
75–79Small sample0–0Not gradedn=01
80–84Small sample2–166.7%n=30+16.7 pp base 50%
85–89Small sample2–166.7%n=30+16.7 pp base 50%
90–94Small sample1–0100.0%n=10+50.1 pp base 50%
95–98Small sample5–362.5%n=80+12.6 pp base 50%
99–10035–1866.0%n=530+40.4 pp base 26%
Over vs Under
Over106–5366.7%n=159
Under0–0Not gradedn=0
MarketOverUnder
Assists66.7% n=159Not graded n=0
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Assists66.7% n=159+32.6 pp base 34%106–5367% 30d
Consistency
All time
66.7%
106–53 n=159
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-071–0100.0% n=1+56.6 pp base 43%
2026-08105–5366.5% n=158+32.6 pp base 34%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
WNBA Assists
wnba-pra-v42026-08-21→2026-08-2845–2366.2% n=68+34.9 pp base 31%
4 earlier versions2026-07-15→2026-08-2061–3067.0% n=91+31.1 pp base 36%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.