Are the signals earning trust?
Performance
Market
⚾ Batter
⚾ Pitcher
SP Hits Allowed carries the strongest edge (-4.4 pts over base).
What's working
Every market's measured edge against how much of it we actually serve, ranked by lift. The tables further down read served predictions only, so a market that is good but never clears the floor is invisible there — and looks the same as one that does not work.
MarketAll predictionsServed (70+)Share served
SP Hits Allowed-4.4 pp n=444-2.7 pp n=24856%
“Starved” means the market beats its base rate by 5+ points across everything it predicted, yet under a tenth of those ever clear the floor — the scale cannot reach, so the edge is never offered.
Last 30 days · Featured1–233.3%n=3
All qualifying130–11852.4%n=248
Featured1–233.3%n=3
Other qualifying129–11652.7%n=245
Deeper diagnostics
Market pulse
Recent slate hit rates compared with each market’s own average. The right edge shows the selected period and the latest three slates versus the prior three.
MarketPeriodAug22Aug10
⚾SP Hits Allowed33%n=3building sample0%n=150%n=2
Above own averageNear own averageBelow own averageFaded cells have fewer than 5 decisions
Does a higher score perform better?
Not enough graded props yet to judge whether higher scores perform better. The 99–100 band remains small.
Current scoring engine only — 2 predictions from superseded versions excluded. Pooling engines once made the top band look anti-predictive when it was not; per-version records are in the model table below.
Score bandRecordHit rateSampleVoidsvs base
99–100Small sample0–10.0%n=10-46.6 pp base 47%
Over vs Under
Over0–0Not gradedn=0
Under1–233.3%n=3
MarketOverUnder
SP Hits AllowedNot graded n=033.3% n=3
Edge finder
SegmentHit ratevs baseRecord30-day trend
Below minimum sample
SP Hits AllowedSmall33.3% n=3-24.4 pp base 58%1–233% 30d
Consistency
Last 7
0.0%
0–1 n=1
Last 30
33.3%
1–2 n=3
Prev 30
Not graded
0–0
Season
33.3%
1–2 n=3
All time
33.3%
1–2 n=3
By month
MonthRecordHit ratevs base
2026-081–233.3% n=3-24.4 pp base 58%
Model versions
VersionActiveRecordHit ratevs base
MLB SP Hits Allowed
sp-v42026-08-22→2026-08-220–10.0% n=1-46.6 pp base 47%
1 earlier version2026-08-10→2026-08-101–150.0% n=2-13.3 pp base 63%
All qualifying includes every published prediction scoring 70+. Featured is the main-page eight. Observed hit rates are not probabilities; prediction counts are correlated within the displayed slate count.