Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

Baltimore Ravens

8-9 in 2025

Atlanta Falcons

8-9 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Baltimore wins if

Strong offense (25 pts/g) beats Falcons' middling defense (24 allowed).

Atlanta wins if

Weak offense (21 pts/g) beats Ravens' middling defense (23 allowed).

Watch

Falcons' run game should test Ravens.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

RavensFalcons

24.9 69^thPoints / game31^th 20.8

23.4 47^thPoints allowed / game44^th 23.6

5.8 81^thYards / play62^th 5.4

156.6 100^thRush yards / game78^th 125.8

192.8 16^thPass yards / game39^th 217.8

41% 3rd-down % 33%

-0.2 39^thTurnover margin / game78^th 0.3

What it says. Ravens lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is turnover margin / game, Falcons 78th against 39th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Baltimore has the ball

Passing

Ravens offense

192.8 yds/g 16^th

Falcons defense

221.9 allowed 56^th

Edge Falcons

Rushing

Ravens offense

156.6 yds/g 100^th

Falcons defense

126.2 allowed 28^th

Edge Ravens

When Atlanta has the ball

Passing

Falcons offense

217.8 yds/g 39^th

Ravens defense

259 allowed 12^th

Edge Ravens

Rushing

Falcons offense

125.8 yds/g 78^th

Ravens defense

106.6 allowed 75^th

Edge Falcons

Player spotlights

5 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Ravens

Derrick HenryRB

100+ Rush Yards

108.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Zay FlowersWR

60+ Rec Yards

72.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Falcons

Michael Penix Jr.QB

200+ Pass Yards

220.2 avg · cleared 56% (5/9)

Bijan RobinsonRB

75+ Rush Yards

92.9 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Tough matchup-11 ydsPlayers lose 11 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 3rd-toughest run defence of 32

Drake LondonWR

75+ Rec Yards

81.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

RavensLWLWL2-3 last 5 · 27.0 for · 21.0 against

FalconsLWWWW4-1 last 5 · 22.0 for · 25.0 against