Week 5 · 2026-10-11
San Francisco 49ers
13-5 in 2025
at
Seattle Seahawks
14-3 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
San Francisco wins if
Strong offense (26 pts/g) beats Seahawks' elite defense (17 allowed).
Seattle wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats 49ers' strong defense (22 allowed).
Watch
Seahawks' run game should test 49ers; 49ers' passing attack should test Seahawks.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
49ersSeahawks
25.6 72thPoints / game97th 28.4
21.7 66thPoints allowed / game97th 17.2
5.6 69thYards / play84th 5.9
105.1 25thRush yards / game70th 123.3
256.1 84thPass yards / game72th 239.0
50% 3rd-down % 40%
-0.4 16thTurnover margin / game39th -0.2
What it says. Seahawks lead on 5 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is rush yards / game, Seahawks 70th against 25th.
Each offense against the other defense
When San Francisco has the ball
Passing
49ers offense
256.1 yds/g 84th
Seahawks defense
212.9 allowed 69th
Rushing
49ers offense
105.1 yds/g 25th
Seahawks defense
91.9 allowed 94th
When Seattle has the ball
Passing
Seahawks offense
239 yds/g 72th
49ers defense
237.7 allowed 34th
Rushing
Seahawks offense
123.3 yds/g 70th
49ers defense
109.6 allowed 66th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
49ersBrock PurdyQB
250+ Pass Yards
242.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Christian McCaffreyRB
60+ Rush Yards
76.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-11 ydsPlayers lose 11 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 4th-toughest run defence of 32
George KittleTE
60+ Rec Yards
60.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Ricky PearsallWR
50+ Rec Yards
58.7 avg · cleared 56% (5/9)
Matchup not a factor
SeahawksSam DarnoldQB
225+ Pass Yards
229.4 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-12 ydsPlayers lose 12 yards against their own form facing this pass defence
Kenneth Walker IIIRB
50+ Rush Yards
59.7 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
75+ Rec Yards
97.4 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
49ersWWWLW4-1 last 5 · 30.6 for · 24.2 againstSeahawksWWWWW5-0 last 5 · 26.6 for · 15.0 against