Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Detroit Lions
9-8 in 2025
at
Arizona Cardinals
3-14 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Detroit wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats Cardinals' weak defense (29 allowed).
Arizona wins if
Weak offense (21 pts/g) beats Lions' weak defense (24 allowed).
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
LionsCardinals
28.3 94thPoints / game34th 20.9
24.3 34thPoints allowed / game12th 28.7
6.0 94thYards / play38th 5.2
120.1 62thRush yards / game6th 93.1
268.6 94thPass yards / game88th 256.1
39% 3rd-down % 42%
0.2 75thTurnover margin / game53th -0.1
What it says. Lions lead on 6 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points / game, Lions 94th against 34th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Detroit has the ball
Passing
Lions offense
268.6 yds/g 94th
Cardinals defense
242.8 allowed 31th
Rushing
Lions offense
120.1 yds/g 62th
Cardinals defense
126.9 allowed 25th
When Arizona has the ball
Passing
Cardinals offense
256.1 yds/g 88th
Lions defense
236.9 allowed 38th
Rushing
Cardinals offense
93.1 yds/g 6th
Lions defense
114.5 allowed 62th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
LionsJared GoffQB
275+ Pass Yards
293.3 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-15 ydsPlayers lose 15 yards against their own form facing this pass defence
Jahmyr GibbsRB
40+ Rush Yards
69.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR
60+ Rec Yards
86.3 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jameson WilliamsWR
60+ Rec Yards
82.8 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Matchup not a factor
CardinalsJacoby BrissettQB
250+ Pass Yards
276.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 3rd-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Trey McBrideTE
75+ Rec Yards
81.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Michael WilsonWR
60+ Rec Yards
87.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
LionsWLLLW2-3 last 5 · 26.2 for · 27.8 againstCardinalsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 18.0 for · 37.0 against