Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Week 5 · 2026-10-11

Chicago Bears

12-6 in 2025

Green Bay Packers

9-9 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Chicago wins if

Strong offense (26 pts/g) beats Packers' middling defense (22 allowed).

Green Bay wins if

Middling offense (23 pts/g) beats Bears' weak defense (25 allowed).

Watch

Bears' run game should test Packers; Bears' passing attack should test Packers.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

BearsPackers

26.2 75^thPoints / game56^th 23.2

24.6 31^thPoints allowed / game62^th 21.7

5.7 75^thYards / play72^th 5.6

141.3 94^thRush yards / game53^th 118.7

241.8 78^thPass yards / game53^th 231.6

43% 3rd-down % 48%

1.1 100^thTurnover margin / game70^th 0.2

What it says. Bears lead on 5 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is rush yards / game, Bears 94th against 53th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Chicago has the ball

Passing

Bears offense

241.8 yds/g 78^th

Packers defense

215.4 allowed 62^th

Edge Bears

Rushing

Bears offense

141.3 yds/g 94^th

Packers defense

116.3 allowed 53^th

Edge Bears

When Green Bay has the ball

Passing

Packers offense

231.6 yds/g 53^th

Bears defense

243.9 allowed 28^th

Even

Rushing

Packers offense

118.7 yds/g 53^th

Bears defense

132.6 allowed 19^th

Edge Bears

Player spotlights

7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Bears

Caleb WilliamsQB

200+ Pass Yards

238.7 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

D'Andre SwiftRB

50+ Rush Yards

67.7 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)

Rome OdunzeWR

40+ Rec Yards

47.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Colston LovelandTE

40+ Rec Yards

61.6 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Packers

Jordan LoveQB

225+ Pass Yards

226.6 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Josh JacobsRB

50+ Rush Yards

57.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Christian WatsonWR

40+ Rec Yards

56.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

BearsWWLLW3-2 last 5 · 27.6 for · 21.4 against

PackersLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 19.2 for · 28.8 against