Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Denver Broncos
14-3 in 2025
at
Los Angeles Chargers
11-7 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Denver wins if
Middling offense (24 pts/g) beats Chargers' strong defense (20 allowed).
Los Angeles wins if
Weak offense (21 pts/g) beats Broncos' elite defense (18 allowed).
Watch
Chargers' run game should test Broncos; Broncos' passing attack should test Chargers.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
BroncosChargers
23.6 59thPoints / game28th 20.6
18.3 91thPoints allowed / game78th 19.8
5.3 56thYards / play25th 5.1
118.7 56thRush yards / game59th 119.7
231.2 50thPass yards / game47th 228.4
41% 3rd-down % 44%
-0.2 39thTurnover margin / game70th 0.2
What it says. Broncos lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points / game, Broncos 59th against 28th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Denver has the ball
Passing
Broncos offense
231.2 yds/g 50th
Chargers defense
199 allowed 88th
Rushing
Broncos offense
118.7 yds/g 56th
Chargers defense
107.6 allowed 72th
When Los Angeles has the ball
Passing
Chargers offense
228.4 yds/g 47th
Broncos defense
212.1 allowed 72th
Rushing
Chargers offense
119.7 yds/g 59th
Broncos defense
91.1 allowed 97th
Player spotlights
4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
BroncosBo NixQB
200+ Pass Yards
237.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-34 ydsPlayers lose 34 yards against their own form facing this pass defence, 4th-toughest pass defence of 32
J.K. DobbinsRB
75+ Rush Yards
77.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-9 ydsPlayers lose 9 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 5th-toughest run defence of 32
Courtland SuttonWR
50+ Rec Yards
54.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
ChargersJustin HerbertQB
200+ Pass Yards
197.3 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
BroncosWWLWW4-1 last 5 · 23.4 for · 18.6 againstChargersWWLLL2-3 last 5 · 14.4 for · 17.0 against