Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Week 5 · 2026-10-11

Minnesota Vikings

9-8 in 2025

New Orleans Saints

6-11 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Minnesota wins if

Weak offense (20 pts/g) beats Saints' middling defense (23 allowed).

New Orleans wins if

Weak offense (18 pts/g) beats Vikings' strong defense (20 allowed).

Watch

Saints' passing attack should test Vikings.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

VikingsSaints

20.2 22^thPoints / game16^th 18.0

19.6 81^thPoints allowed / game56^th 22.5

4.9 16^thYards / play19^th 5.0

108.3 31^thRush yards / game16^th 94.3

188.7 9^thPass yards / game69^th 236.9

32% 3rd-down % 39%

-0.5 11^thTurnover margin / game30^th -0.2

What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is pass yards / game, Saints 69th against 9th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Minnesota has the ball

Passing

Vikings offense

188.7 yds/g 9^th

Saints defense

196.2 allowed 91^th

Even

Rushing

Vikings offense

108.3 yds/g 31^th

Saints defense

120.6 allowed 44^th

Edge Saints

When New Orleans has the ball

Passing

Saints offense

236.9 yds/g 69^th

Vikings defense

177.7 allowed 97^th

Edge Saints

Rushing

Saints offense

94.3 yds/g 16^th

Vikings defense

124.1 allowed 34^th

Edge Vikings

Player spotlights

4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Vikings

Carson WentzQB

225+ Pass Yards

243.2 avg · cleared 60% (3/5)

Aaron JonesRB

40+ Rush Yards

50.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Saints

Tyler ShoughQB

225+ Pass Yards

238.4 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Tough matchup-11 ydsPlayers lose 11 yards against their own form facing this pass defence

Chris OlaveWR

60+ Rec Yards

82.1 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

VikingsWWWWW5-0 last 5 · 24.0 for · 10.4 against

SaintsWWWWL4-1 last 5 · 24.8 for · 17.6 against