Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Las Vegas Raiders
3-14 in 2025
at
New England Patriots
15-3 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Las Vegas wins if
Weak offense (14 pts/g) beats Patriots' elite defense (18 allowed).
New England wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats Raiders' weak defense (25 allowed).
Watch
Patriots' run game should test Raiders; Patriots' passing attack should test Raiders.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
RaidersPatriots
14.2 3thPoints / game88th 28.1
25.4 25thPoints allowed / game94th 17.9
4.4 9thYards / play100th 6.2
77.5 3thRush yards / game88th 129.8
195.0 19thPass yards / game91th 262.6
34% 3rd-down % 43%
-0.4 20thTurnover margin / game64th 0.1
What it says. Patriots lead on 6 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is yards / play, Patriots 100th against 9th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Las Vegas has the ball
Passing
Raiders offense
195 yds/g 19th
Patriots defense
203.9 allowed 81th
Rushing
Raiders offense
77.5 yds/g 3th
Patriots defense
100.9 allowed 84th
When New England has the ball
Passing
Patriots offense
262.6 yds/g 91th
Raiders defense
214.4 allowed 66th
Rushing
Patriots offense
129.8 yds/g 88th
Raiders defense
116.8 allowed 47th
Player spotlights
6 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
RaidersAshton JeantyRB
40+ Rush Yards
53.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-7 ydsPlayers lose 7 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 7th-toughest run defence of 32
Brock BowersTE
40+ Rec Yards
53.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jakobi MeyersWR
40+ Rec Yards
49.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
PatriotsDrake MayeQB
250+ Pass Yards
263.6 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Tough matchup-16 ydsPlayers lose 16 yards against their own form facing this pass defence
TreVeyon HendersonRB
60+ Rush Yards
71.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Hunter HenryTE
40+ Rec Yards
51.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
RaidersLLLLW1-4 last 5 · 12.4 for · 24.8 againstPatriotsLWWWW4-1 last 5 · 31.0 for · 16.4 against