Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 5 · 2026-10-11

Indianapolis Colts

8-9 in 2025

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-8 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Indianapolis wins if

Strong offense (27 pts/g) beats Steelers' middling defense (23 allowed).

Pittsburgh wins if

Middling offense (22 pts/g) beats Colts' middling defense (24 allowed).

Watch

Steelers own the turnover battle.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

ColtsSteelers

27.4 78^thPoints / game50^th 22.4

24.2 38^thPoints allowed / game50^th 23.2

5.8 78^thYards / play34^th 5.1

118.1 47^thRush yards / game22^th 101.1

240.3 75^thPass yards / game34^th 210.0

43% 3rd-down % 38%

-0.1 53^thTurnover margin / game94^th 0.7

What it says. Colts lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is yards / play, Colts 78th against 34th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Indianapolis has the ball

Passing

Colts offense

240.3 yds/g 75^th

Steelers defense

260.4 allowed 9^th

Even

Rushing

Colts offense

118.1 yds/g 47^th

Steelers defense

115.9 allowed 56^th

Even

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Passing

Steelers offense

210 yds/g 34^th

Colts defense

262.5 allowed 6^th

Edge Colts

Rushing

Steelers offense

101.1 yds/g 22^th

Colts defense

101.9 allowed 81^th

Even

Player spotlights

3 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Colts

Jonathan TaylorRB

60+ Rush Yards

88.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 4th-softest run defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call

Steelers

Jaylen WarrenRB

60+ Rush Yards

59.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

DK MetcalfWR

40+ Rec Yards

48.6 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

ColtsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 21.8 for · 32.6 against

SteelersWWLWL3-2 last 5 · 19.0 for · 21.2 against