Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Week 5 · 2026-10-11

Houston Texans

13-5 in 2025

Tennessee Titans

3-14 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Houston wins if

Middling offense (24 pts/g) beats Titans' weak defense (28 allowed).

Tennessee wins if

Weak offense (17 pts/g) beats Texans' elite defense (17 allowed).

Watch

Texans own the turnover battle.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

TexansTitans

24.1 62^thPoints / game9^th 16.7

16.7 100^thPoints allowed / game16^th 28.1

5.2 41^thYards / play6^th 4.4

112.0 34^thRush yards / game9^th 93.5

233.7 59^thPass yards / game12^th 190.6

39% 3rd-down % 32%

0.9 97^thTurnover margin / game25^th -0.3

What it says. Texans lead on 6 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points allowed / game, Texans 100th against 16th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Houston has the ball

Passing

Texans offense

233.7 yds/g 59^th

Titans defense

248.3 allowed 22^th

Even

Rushing

Texans offense

112 yds/g 34^th

Titans defense

114.6 allowed 59^th

Even

When Tennessee has the ball

Passing

Titans offense

190.6 yds/g 12^th

Texans defense

201.9 allowed 84^th

Even

Rushing

Titans offense

93.5 yds/g 9^th

Texans defense

92 allowed 91^th

Even

Player spotlights

4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Texans

C.J. StroudQB

225+ Pass Yards

221.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Tough matchup-27 ydsPlayers lose 27 yards against their own form facing this pass defence, 6th-toughest pass defence of 32

Woody MarksRB

60+ Rush Yards

60.1 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Nico CollinsWR

75+ Rec Yards

79.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Titans

Tony PollardRB

50+ Rush Yards

70.2 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Tough matchup-14 ydsPlayers lose 14 yards against their own form facing this run defence, toughest run defence of 32

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

TexansWWWWW5-0 last 5 · 30.2 for · 18.6 against

TitansWLWLL2-3 last 5 · 22.8 for · 30.0 against