Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Cleveland Browns
5-12 in 2025
at
New York Jets
3-14 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Cleveland wins if
Weak offense (16 pts/g) beats Jets' weak defense (30 allowed).
New York wins if
Weak offense (18 pts/g) beats Browns' middling defense (22 allowed).
Watch
Browns own the turnover battle.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
BrownsJets
16.4 6thPoints / game12th 17.6
22.3 59thPoints allowed / game6th 29.6
4.3 3thYards / play12th 4.4
97.0 19thRush yards / game70th 123.3
185.4 6thPass yards / game3th 163.8
34% 3rd-down % 35%
-0.4 20thTurnover margin / game3th -1.1
What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points allowed / game, Browns 59th against 6th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Cleveland has the ball
Passing
Browns offense
185.4 yds/g 6th
Jets defense
226.4 allowed 53th
Rushing
Browns offense
97 yds/g 19th
Jets defense
139.5 allowed 12th
When New York has the ball
Passing
Jets offense
163.8 yds/g 3th
Browns defense
189.4 allowed 94th
Rushing
Jets offense
123.3 yds/g 70th
Browns defense
116.4 allowed 50th
Player spotlights
3 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
BrownsHarold Fannin Jr.TE
40+ Rec Yards
47.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
JetsBreece HallRB
50+ Rush Yards
65.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Garrett WilsonWR
60+ Rec Yards
56.4 avg · cleared 57% (4/7)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
BrownsLLLWW2-3 last 5 · 17.0 for · 21.8 againstJetsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 10.8 for · 37.6 against