Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Cincinnati Bengals
6-11 in 2025
at
Miami Dolphins
7-10 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Cincinnati wins if
Strong offense (24 pts/g) beats Dolphins' weak defense (25 allowed).
Miami wins if
Weak offense (20 pts/g) beats Bengals' weak defense (29 allowed).
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
BengalsDolphins
24.4 66thPoints / game25th 20.4
28.9 9thPoints allowed / game28th 24.9
5.3 50thYards / play59th 5.4
93.6 12thRush yards / game66th 120.2
249.6 81thPass yards / game22th 195.4
43% 3rd-down % 35%
-0.2 39thTurnover margin / game30th -0.2
What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is pass yards / game, Bengals 81th against 22th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Cincinnati has the ball
Passing
Bengals offense
249.6 yds/g 81th
Dolphins defense
230.6 allowed 47th
Rushing
Bengals offense
93.6 yds/g 12th
Dolphins defense
132.4 allowed 22th
When Miami has the ball
Passing
Dolphins offense
195.4 yds/g 22th
Bengals defense
245.6 allowed 25th
Rushing
Dolphins offense
120.2 yds/g 66th
Bengals defense
147.1 allowed 3th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
BengalsJoe BurrowQB
225+ Pass Yards
226.1 avg · cleared 75% (6/8)
Chase BrownRB
60+ Rush Yards
70.9 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Ja'Marr ChaseWR
75+ Rec Yards
94.4 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Tee HigginsWR
60+ Rec Yards
68.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
DolphinsDe'Von AchaneRB
75+ Rush Yards
96.0 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 3rd-softest run defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Tyreek HillWR
40+ Rec Yards
66.2 avg · cleared 100% (4/4)
Matchup not a factor
Jaylen WaddleWR
50+ Rec Yards
52.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
BengalsLLWWL2-3 last 5 · 26.8 for · 23.6 againstDolphinsWLLWL2-3 last 5 · 20.0 for · 27.6 against