Week 5 · 2026-10-11
Philadelphia Eagles
11-7 in 2025
at
Jacksonville Jaguars
13-5 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Philadelphia wins if
Middling offense (22 pts/g) beats Jaguars' strong defense (20 allowed).
Jacksonville wins if
Strong offense (28 pts/g) beats Eagles' strong defense (19 allowed).
Watch
Eagles' run game should test Jaguars; Jaguars' passing attack should test Eagles.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
EaglesJaguars
22.1 44thPoints / game81th 27.7
19.3 84thPoints allowed / game75th 20.2
5.2 44thYards / play53th 5.3
118.2 50thRush yards / game44th 117.2
203.7 31thPass yards / game62th 235.2
37% 3rd-down % 40%
0.4 84thTurnover margin / game89th 0.7
What it says. Jaguars lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points / game, Jaguars 81th against 44th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Philadelphia has the ball
Passing
Eagles offense
203.7 yds/g 31th
Jaguars defense
233.7 allowed 44th
Rushing
Eagles offense
118.2 yds/g 50th
Jaguars defense
85.2 allowed 100th
When Jacksonville has the ball
Passing
Jaguars offense
235.2 yds/g 62th
Eagles defense
209.3 allowed 75th
Rushing
Jaguars offense
117.2 yds/g 44th
Eagles defense
121.7 allowed 41th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
EaglesSaquon BarkleyRB
75+ Rush Yards
87.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-9 ydsPlayers lose 9 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 6th-toughest run defence of 32
A.J. BrownWR
60+ Rec Yards
75.4 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
DeVonta SmithWR
40+ Rec Yards
49.0 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
JaguarsTrevor LawrenceQB
225+ Pass Yards
237.4 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-20 ydsPlayers lose 20 yards against their own form facing this pass defence
Travis EtienneRB
50+ Rush Yards
57.6 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Parker WashingtonWR
60+ Rec Yards
74.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jakobi MeyersWR
40+ Rec Yards
49.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
EaglesWWWLL3-2 last 5 · 21.8 for · 15.4 againstJaguarsWWWWL4-1 last 5 · 34.0 for · 18.2 against